It’s been a rocky ride for Apple.
After hitting an all-time high in late December 2024, the stock has been on a steady decline – dragged down by rising tensions between the U.S. and China, new tariffs on tech imports, and mounting pressure on Apple’s China-based supply chain.
And as of this week, Apple has officially lost its title as the world’s most valuable company to Microsoft.
Then came another blow: President Trump’s administration announced a steep increase in tariffs on Chinese imports – raising the effective duty on goods like iPhones to 104% (as of the time of writing).
That’s a massive hit for a company that assembles most of its products in China. Meanwhile, investors are nervous. Apple’s share price reflects it.
Some investors are panicking.
Others are looking at this as a buying opportunity.
But how do you know if this is a good time to buy—or a sign to stay away?
This is where the Invest Diva Diamond Analysis (IDDA) framework comes in.
The IDDA breaks down investing into 5 simple, powerful steps:
- Capital Analysis – Understand your personal risk tolerance.
- Intentional Analysis – Make sure the asset aligns with your financial goals and timeline.
- Fundamental Analysis – Dig into the company’s financial and business performance.
- Sentimental Analysis – Consider what the market is feeling and reacting to.
- Technical Analysis – Use charts to identify smart entry and exit points.
In this post, we’ll break down what’s really going on with Apple right now, using the IDDA method to help you decide:
📉 Is Apple heading into dangerous territory… or
📈 is this the perfect moment to invest in one of the biggest tech names of our time?
Let’s dive in.
IDDA Point 1 & 2 – Capital & Intentional Analysis
Before we dive into Apple’s numbers, let’s talk about something even more important: you.
The capital and intentional analysis need to be conducted by you—because investing isn’t one-size-fits-all. Your financial situation, goals, and comfort level with risk should always come first.
Ask yourself:
- Does Apple align with your financial goals? (Are you investing for long-term growth? Passive income? Retirement?)
- Does it match your investment timeline? (Are you in this for the next 10+ years or hoping for shorter-term gains?)
- Are you okay with some volatility, especially with all the trade war drama unfolding?
Apple is a strong company, no doubt. But that doesn’t automatically mean it’s the right fit for you.
So pause. Reflect. Be honest with yourself.
Listen to your gut—but make sure your decision reflects your goals, not someone else’s hype.
IDDA Point 3 – Fundamental Analysis
Apple is still a beast fundamentally—but it’s navigating serious headwinds right now.
💰 Strong Balance Sheet
Apple has over $60 billion in cash and continues to generate solid free cash flow. That’s a cushion most companies can only dream of. It gives Apple flexibility to invest, innovate, and survive turbulent times like these.
📉 Revenue Growth Slowing
Revenue from China has taken a hit, partly due to rising competition (hello Huawei) and the fallout from U.S.-China tensions. Hardware sales are softening, and while Services and Wearables are growing, they’re not offsetting the slowdown—yet.
🇺🇸 $500 Billion U.S. Investment
In February 2025, Apple announced its largest investment ever:
A plan to spend over $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, doubling its Advanced Manufacturing Fund and ramping up investments in AI, silicon, and U.S.-based production.
This is a strategic move to reduce reliance on China—and possibly soften the blow from tariffs.
⚠️ Tariff Trouble
As of the time of writing, the U.S. has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to an effective 104%, hitting Apple hard since most iPhones are still assembled in China. That puts pressure on margins unless Apple shifts production—or raises prices.
🏭 Supply Chain Shift
Apple has begun moving some operations to India and Vietnam, but it’s a slow process. Until a significant chunk of manufacturing is relocated, China remains a risk.
Apple’s fundamentals remain strong. While short-term headwinds exist, its long-term business model, brand power, and innovation pipeline continue to make it a solid player for long-term investors.
IDDA Point 4 – Sentimental Analysis
Investor confidence in Apple has definitely taken a hit—but not everyone is running for the exits.
Since reaching an all-time high in late December 2024, Apple’s stock has been sliding. As mentioned earlier, it recently lost its title as the world’s most valuable company to Microsoft.
Tariffs, supply chain risks, and tensions with China are making the market nervous.
Still, there’s plenty of optimism out there. CEO Tim Cook’s $500 billion U.S. investment plan is being seen as a power move – reassuring investors that Apple is serious about reducing its reliance on China and doubling down on innovation.
And let’s not forget: Apple has one of the widest economic moats in the game. That kind of brand power doesn’t disappear overnight.
According to Morningstar, Apple currently has a 4-star rating, suggesting it may be undervalued based on its long-term potential.
Short-term anxiety? Sure. But long-term faith in Apple? Still holding strong.
IDDA Point 5 – Technical Analysis
The weekly chart shows increasing signs of bearish momentum.
Here’s what we see:
🔻 Candles have broken below the Ichimoku Cloud – a key bearish signal.
🔻 Conversion line (Tenkan) is below the baseline (Kijun) – confirming downward pressure.
🔻 Lagging span (Chikou) has dropped below the cloud – momentum is weakening.
🟡 The green cloud ahead is thinning and looks ready to flip red—another red flag for trend direction.
🟡 RSI is at 28 on the weekly chart — This is considered oversold territory.
Together, these signals show a medium-term downtrend building.
But when we zoom out to the monthly chart, Apple still looks solid.
🟢 Candles remain well above the Ichimoku Cloud – the long-term uptrend is intact.
🟢 All Ichimoku indicators are still bullish – the conversion and baseline lines are in the right order, and the cloud ahead is green.
So while we’re seeing medium-term weakness, long-term investors may see this as a pullback within a broader uptrend.
Buy Limit Order Ideas:
$155.66 – high risk
$131.42 – medium risk
$116.24 – low risk
Here are the Invest Diva ‘Confidence Compass’ questions to ask yourself before buying at each level:
- If I buy at this price and the price drops by another 50%, how would I feel? Would I panic, or would I buy more to dollar-cost average at lower prices? (hint: this question also reveals your CONFIDENCE in the asset you’re planning to invest in).
- If I don’t buy at this price and the stock suddenly turns around and starts going up again, will I beat myself up for not having bought at this level?
Remember: Investing is personal, and what is right for me might not be right for you. Always do your own due diligence. You should ONLY invest based on your own risk tolerance and your timeframe for reaching your portfolio goals
Short-term traders should expect more downside pressure. But for long-term investors, Apple is still above key levels on the monthly chart—and that may offer opportunity in the midst of the storm.
Summary: Final Thoughts
Apple is facing one of its most challenging macro environments in years.
🧠 Fundamentally, the company remains strong. It’s sitting on $60+ billion in cash, has a resilient brand, and is doubling down on U.S.-based innovation with a massive $500 billion investment over four years. However, revenue growth—especially in China—is slowing. Supply chain dependency on China continues to be a risk, and high tariffs are squeezing margins.
📉 Sentiment-wise, investor confidence is shaky. Apple recently lost its title as the world’s most valuable company, and the effective 104% tariff on Chinese imports has created real concern. Still, Apple’s wide economic moat, loyal customer base, and strong leadership under Tim Cook keep long-term sentiment from turning overly bearish.
📊 Technically, the weekly chart suggests medium-term weakness. Apple is trading below key Ichimoku levels, and momentum is currently down. But the monthly chart remains bullish, and RSI shows the stock is oversold—offering potential for a bounce if macro conditions ease.
🧭 Overall, Apple is in a transitional phase. It’s repositioning its supply chain, doubling down on domestic production, and navigating global uncertainty. But its fundamentals are intact, and for long-term investors, this may be an opportunity—not a red flag.
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If you enjoyed this blog post, you’ll love my post on Reddit Stock Update: Revenue Is Booming—But Is It Enough?.
Disclosure: I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. This information is for educational purposes only. This post about Will Apple Weather the US-China Trade War… or Pay the Price? may contain affiliate links, meaning I get a commission if you decide to make a purchase through my links, at no cost to you. Please see the terms of service page for more information.
Invest Diva Premium Coach, $100K+ portfolio award winner, mom of 3. Increased family net worth from $200K in 2020 to $500K+ in 2024.
