How to Trade NZD/USD Ahead of another Possible Rate Cut

How to Trade NZD/USD Ahead of another Possible Rate Cut

8:10 PM (EST) Update

Forex NZD/USD Daily: Tested a five year low below the Ichimoku cloud

Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar – US dollar pair (NZD/USD) has been rocking it reaching our bearish targets one after another, currently testing a five year low at 0.6836, doing a correction move while remaining  below the Ichimoku cloud . The RSI  is heading up above the neutrality area so we could see a continued correction, but a break below the 0.6836 could open doors for further drops towards 0.6568.

Sentiment Analysis

An indecisive spinning top candlestick pattern formed right at our bearish target with a bullish candle right next to it. Could this be the beginning of a reversal?

Economic Points

New Zealand Side

After the interest rate cut by RBNZ a couple of weeks ago, Mr. Kiwi had no choice but to head further south. We are likely to see further interest rate cuts coming up since in his accompanying statement, Wheeler admitted that subdued inflation and lackluster growth were the main factors that led them to decide that a rate cut was necessary. In such occasion, Mr. Kiwi will be GOIN’ DOWN!

There are a bunch of factors that support the idea of another interest rate cut for Mr. Kiwi. Keep in mind that New Zealand’s Q1 2015 economic data was so bad that it made some Kangaroos from the Land Down Under wanna cry.

Its GDP came in at a meager 0.2% for the quarter, lower than the estimated 0.6% expansion, while the previous period’s growth figure was downgraded from 0.8% to 0.7%.

Inflation was also considerably below expectation, as the CPI chalked up a worse-than-expected 0.3% decline for Q1, marking its second quarterly drop. Leading inflation indicators suggest that price levels could continue to tumble, with producer input prices decreasing by 1.1% and output prices falling by 0.9%.

Other than that, export levels have been weak, and consumers are lacking the confidence to shop more as they are probably anticipating possible layoffs due to New Zealand’s economic slow down and the downturn in manufacturing activity.

All in all, New Zealand’s economy seems to need further stimulus and a future rate cut could be in the pages of Mr. Kiwi’s book.

Before that happens, the New Zealand trade balance is scheduled to be released Thursday night at 11:45 PM GMT (beginning of Friday’s Sydney session). If the number beats expectations, the Kiwi correction could continue a little bit longer.

US Side

With recent FOMC comments about two potential upcoming interest rate hikes within 2015, Ms. USA could get even stronger, dragging Mr. Kiwi down on the forex dance floor.

Trading Idea

Wait for a concrete bearish signal before entering the next bearish positions.

Suggested stops and limits:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
0.6836 0.7190 0.7190
0.6570 0.6982 0.7380

*Important Note: The support and resistance levels are not suitable for all traders and largely depend on your account size, margin and leverage. Book a private lesson to learn how to personalize your account based on our trading guide.