Looking to the week ahead, Greece will be on everyone’s minds (again) as time really is running out and they either compromise, compromise, compromise, or become compromised.
Not many hot economic data to come out this week other than Bank of England meeting minutes being the highlight from the UK – these will be heavily scrutinised, as we haven’t heard from the BoE since the pre-election media blackout started at the end of March. European PMI numbers are out later in the week and from the US, we’ve only really got durable goods orders to get excited about and that’s not until Friday.
So what is going on, on the forex dance floor?
After all the rally last week that got dollar bears sweating, Monday opened with a bearish sentiment with most major pairs forming a spinning top candlestick pattern followed by a bearish one, indicating we could see more downside coming up.
The Aussie pair its on its way down as it dances within the Ichimoku cloud against the US dollar, following what I predicted last week about the fate of the pair.
How do you like me now?
More on Greece: Is a Default Still Possible?
There were no new developments over the Greek situation and that was probably the issue for trades. The lack of development as we go into yet another make or break week for Athens means that they will be raiding every single piggy bank and will then still be faced with a difficult decisions; pay the public sector or pay the IMF May’s instalment.
Christine Lagarde last week ruled out any delay in repayment due to the IMF and over the weekend Austrian central banker Nowotny has said that the ECB’s liquidity assistance cannot be anything more than a temporary measure to support Greek banks. Mario Draghi, taking a less diplomatic stance, said “we have enough instruments at this point of time, the OMT, QE and so on, which though designed for other purposes could certainly be used in a crisis if needed… we are better equipped than we were in 2011/12”.
However, Yannis Varoufakis made a very good point when he said “anyone who toys with the idea of cutting off bits of the euro zone, hoping the rest will survive is playing with fire…Once the idea enters people’s minds that monetary union is not forever, speculation begins. Who’s next? ”
There is now chatter about how Europe will let Greece default while staying within the eurozone. This option seems to have come very late in the game, so it will be a wonder if the powers that be have established how this is possible in such a short space of time. Either way, we’re getting a lot closer to final whistle.
Any updates on the situation could have a strong effect on the euro in the coming days, as these could spur more buzz about a “Grexit” or potential contagion. Better be quick about making any forex trade adjustments if necessary!
Mr. Aussie and his Moves
Suggested positioning: Short Positions Below 0.79 with target at 0.76
Technical Analysis: After 4 days of rally, the AUD/USD is now heading back down, testing the lower band of Ichimoku cloud before reaching any of key Fibonacci levels
Alternative Scenario: Above 0.79 look for upside moves towards 0.8042 and 0.8317
Where I’m setting my stops and limits:
|Support Levels||Turning Point||Resistance Levels|