EUR/USD Trading Strategy: Up on Eurogroup Decisions

EUR/USD Trading Strategy: Up on Eurogroup Decisions

4:00 AM (EST) Update: EUR up on Eurogroup Decisions

EUR/USD: Reached bullish target at 1.1270. Further upside towards 38% Fibonacci at 1.1790 after pullback

EUR – USD Kiana’s Positioning:

Bullish targeting 1.1280 and 1.1790. Wait for confirmation for larger trades.

Technical analysis: The pair danced all the way above and beyond a key resistance level of 23% Fibonacci at 1.1280 and above the Ichimoku cloud. It is currently facing an expected correction with the RSI heading above the neutrality area. Next target is the 38% Fibonacci at 1.1790.

Economic Perspective: In Europe, there are words that the eurogroup might choose the easy life and extend the current bailout program until Fall, giving them the summer off. Negotiations are still at a standoff and yesterday German Financial Minister Schaeuble said that he couldn’t assure people that there wouldn’t be a Greek default. The IMF are the ones likely to be defaulted on, as Greece seems to only have enough money to pay pensioners and public sector workers, or the IMF and they will prioritize the former.

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German press reported that Russia now considers their currency to be too strong and could intervene to reduce the value. A stark turnaround from a few months ago when the Rouble seemed to be in free-fall, the central bank feel that Russia’s export market could be damaged by the rapid appreciation of the currency, which has strengthened by more than 20% in the last six weeks. Russia will now start to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves which are almost entirely spent trying to prop up the currency when it collapsed last year.

Alternative Scenario:Below 1.100 look for further drops towards 1.055 and parity.

Where I’m setting my stops and limits:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
1.1007 1.1280 1.1790
1.0550 1.2201