EUR/USD: Reached bullish target at 1.1270. Further upside towards 38% Fibonacci at 1.1790 after pullback
Trading idea: Bullish targeting 1.1790. Wait for confirmation for larger trades.
Technical analysis: The pair danced all the way above and beyond a key resistance level of 23% Fibonacci at 1.1280 and above the Ichimoku cloud. It is facing a correction at the beginning of the trading week with the RSI heading above the neutrality area. Next target is the 38% Fibonacci at 1.1790.
Economic Perspective: There was no solution found for Greece over the weekend, with conflicting reports coming as to how talks are actually progressing. The IMF’s European director has warned their global board of directors that the talks are so unproductive that they may have to hold back their part of the next aid tranche, which equates to half of the total €7.2bn due in June, and also suggests that any watered down reforms that are being put forward by some Eurogroup members should be coupled with Greece’s European creditors taking debt write downs to make it acceptable for the IMF to release aid funds.
In other parts of Europe; Chief Financial Officers across the region are more optimistic about their companies’ prospects for more than a year. The positive sentiment is tempered somewhat though as only half of those surveyed mentioned increasing capital expenditure and even when they did it was low down on their list of priorities. This could mean that the ECB’s drive to make cash available through QE is a little pointless if it doesn’t stimulate growth.
Alternative Scenario:Below 1.100 look for further drops towards 1.055 and parity.
Where I’m setting my stops and limits:
| Support Levels | Turning Point | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1007 | 1.1280 | 1.1790 |
| 1.0550 | 1.2201 |
