Euro dollar update

The Euro shows no sign of weakening and touches two and a half year highs against the Dollar in the wake of the ECB’s avoidance of further stimulus, signalling some confidence across the region. The single currency, by many banks was dubbed as one of this year’s losers, does not look like it is running out of steam in the near future. There is fundamental support for Euro-Dollar because you have a far larger account surplus in the euro zone compared to the US, which has a deficit.

Italy however is still being attacked by the ECB, according to the ECB’s monthly bulletin “no tangible progress” had been made towards reaching a balanced structural budget. Mario Renzi’s reform announcements earlier this week have received mixed reviews and do not focus enough on attacking the debt to GDP ratio. Furthermore a reduction in income taxes to the tune of €10bn did not go down too well. Italy are not as yet ready to begin easing fiscal policy.

Further revelations from the ECB came from Vienna yesterday, with the ECB ready to fight deflation. They have been preparing additional policy steps to guard against deflation taking hold in the euro zone as the strong euro weighs on prices, The ECB has been preparing additional non-standard monetary policy measures to guard against such a contingecy and why it stand ready to take further decisive action if needed.

Tensions over Russia and Ukraine hit the Dow (-1.41%) and S&P500 (-1.17%), which suffered their worst day since early February. Despite US continuing jobless claims being positively adjusted yesterday and retail sales posted positive numbers, Selling ramped up in the afternoon after Russia launched military exercises along its border with Ukraine. Russia is showing no sign of backing down anytime soon, despite threats of sanctions from the US and EU mounting.

Intraday, I prefer a long positions above 1.384 with targets @ 1.3915 & 1.397 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.384 look for further downside with 1.3795 & 1.3765 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed. The pair is rebounding above its support as the RSI is well directed.

Supports and resistances:
1.401
1.397
1.3915
1.3888: Last.
1.384
1.3795
1.3765

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