どこまでBTCUSDは揺り戻る？

どこまでBTCUSDは揺り戻る？Bitcoinがbitcoinとbitcoin cashに分かれてからちょうど4週間経ちました。bitcoin cashのほうは一週間以上経ってから底値となった一方、元祖bitcoinの方は今週木曜日にUSドルに対して歴史的な4,800ドルを達成しました。この上昇後の揺り戻しがあるかどうかが目下の問題となっています。

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数年前にBitcoinや他の仮想通貨が最初に出回ったとき、私もそうでしたが、多くの人は一時の流行りものとして相手にしませんでした。しかし現在では500万から1000万人の仮想通貨ユーザーがいると推定されています。今、BitCoinはラグジュアリー市場に活路を見出しています。BitCoinでものやサービスを買う人もいますが、多くの人は金や芸術品のような資産としてBitCoinを保持しているのです。

不確実性の高まる不安定な状況の中、Bitcoinは安全な投資先（セーフ・ヘブン）となり得たかもしれません。究極の安全資産は金ですが、BitCoinも十分に可能性があります。特に今年はBitcoinの人気が驚異的です。

このため、火曜日にBTC/USDが更に急上昇し4,800ドルを達成したことも驚きではありません。その前の月曜日には同様にLitecoinがUSドルに対して最高値を記録しました。

テクニカルポイント

BTCが上昇トレンドにあり最高値を記録しているからといって、近い将来の揺り戻しがないとは限りません。

７月に一目均衡表の雲を上抜けした後、BTC/USDはそのまま雲の上空で遷移しています。ほとんどの４時間足より長い足のチャートでは、仮想通貨が雲の下にとどまることはあまりありませんでした。これは通貨ペアらしからぬ動きです。つまりテクニカル分析の観点からさえ、市場参加者はデイ・トレードの対象というよりもむしろ一種の資産としてBTCを見ていることがわかります。

日足チャート分析によれば、次のさらなる上昇までにBTC/USDが下がるとすれば23％フィボナッチレベル、かつキーサポートレベルである4,000ドルでしょう。過去BTC/USDは50％フィボナッチレベルまで後退したことがあるので、歴史が繰り返せば3,250ドルまでの一時的な揺り戻しもありえます。長期投資家にとってはこの安値戻りをポートフォリオの充実に利用することもできます。

１時間足チャートではBTC/USDはほぼ保ち合いとなりました。ボラティリティも落ち着き、マーケットは現在動きを決め兼ねているようです。

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注目ポイントは下記のとおりです。

サポートレベル：3,250ドル, 3,589ドル

ターニングポイント：4,000ドル, 4,463ドル

レジスタンスレベル：4,626ドル, 4,900ドル

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Disclaimer (1): As 4th point of the IDDA, you must calculate your risk tolerance before deciding on which trading strategy is suitable for your portfolio. We normally do not recommend trading without three or more confirmation of a specific direction from technical, fundamental and market sentiment points of view.

Disclaimer(2): Forex is one of the HIGHEST risk investing instruments there is. If you don’t have sufficient risk tolerance to trade forex, you can try investing other online securities.

Final thoughts: Based on our IDDA outlook, there certainly is a chance for BTCUSD to pull back in the coming weeks to at least one of our key support levels.

For further insights on our strategy and where to set your sell limit order and profit taking levels based on your RISK TOLERANCE, join our investing group.

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Combining all points of the IDDA, here are Invest Diva’s calculations for important approximate levels to keep an eye on:

Support Levels	Turning Point	Resistance Levels
3250	4000	4626
3589	4463	4900

– Litecoin Hits All Time High Versus USD.

– ETH/JPY Higher as Mark Cuban Launches Ethereum-Based Mercury Protocol.

Kiana Danial

#1 Best Selling Author. Helping you accelerate your retirement with Triple Compounding™ Former engineer on a mission to help 1 million households take control of their finances. Founder & CEO of Invest Diva.

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