USDCAD Tests Below Ichimoku – Oil, Fed Rate Hike Battle

USDCAD Tests Below Ichimoku

Another happy Monday for Crude Oil. However, as the “black gold” soars beginning of the trading week, USDCAD tests below Ichimoku. With the Fed interest rate hike highly anticipated in December, this could be the great currency pair battle to watch before we finally say goodbye to 2016.

Get my updates. Free.

Technical Analysis | USDCAD Tests Below Ichimoku

Daily Chart: After hitting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3525, the USD/CAD pair has made turn back down, erasing all the progress it made in the past three months. On Monday, USDCAD dared to test below the upward moving Ichimoku cloud.

Are you on Ichimoku Secrets Waiting List?

As I covered last week, the Tenkan line has also crossed below the Kijun line. And the pair is currently testing the median support of 1.31. This level is especially important because it has acted both as support and restsitance multiple times since May 2016.

USDCAD tests below Ichimoku cloud on daily chart – Technical Analysis

Monthly Chart: On a longer time-frame, we are now facing a clear bearish engulfing while the pair remains above the monthly Ichimoku cloud. Long-term support is set at 1.2725, which is a 2009 resistance.

USDCAD tests below Ichimoku cloud – Bearish Engulfing on Monthly Chart

Fundamentals | USDCAD Tests Below Ichimoku

US Side: The US economy has seen some good days and some bad ones in the final quarter of 2016.

The bad:

Total personal spending weaken in October, which is a bad sign for the first month of Q4.
The trade gap widened in October, thanks to a slump in exports.
November doesn’t look too bright for trade because both Markit and ISM are saying in their respective PMI reports that exports are not looking good.
There was a slide in the labor force participation rate and the quality of the job gains

The good:

Revised estimate for Q3 GDP growth was a welcome surprise.
CPI continues to improve
Non-farm employment has consistently been above the 100K “floor” that’s needed to keep up with working age population growth.
The jobless rate is at the lowest level since August 2007.

Now the obvious question is, will the Fed finally raise interest rates?

Stay on top of your investments: Join our Facebook Group

Canada’s Side: Actually, let’s talk about oil.

Crude oil prices jumped up again at the start of the trading week. This was mainly due to some non-OPEC producers who struck a deal to join their OPEC buddies to cut oil supply over the weekend. Taken together, they said they would lower output by 558k barrels per day. Russia agreed to a 300k b/d reduction and Mexico said it would cut by 100k.

Momentum may be capped if the EIA monthly productivity report due later in the day reveals a strong pickup in US output. If there are signs of a strong recovery, market pariticpants may start a speculation that the recent gains in oil prices may be offset, while US and some major producers including Canada, Brazil and Norway are not planning to cut supply.

This theory could bring the USD/CAD pair back on track with November gains.

Market Sentiment | USDCAD Supported by Ichimoku

On Friday 61% of traders were bullish on USD/CAD on one of the largest retail FX brokers in the US. We will sent out an update on Monday’s sentiment on our Facebook page once it is available. So far, using this as a contrarian indicator, we are getting more of a bearish signal.

Trading Strategy | USDCAD Tests Below Ichimoku

Putting the technical, fundamental and sentimental points of the IDDA approach together, we could consider going for a short to medium-term position in the USD/CAD pair. Please visit out Premium Facebook Group for detailed strategy.

Here are Invest Diva’s calculations for important approximate levels to keep an eye on:

Support Levels	Turning Point	Resistance Levels
1.30	1.3250	1.3525
1.31	1.34	1.3750

xoxo

Kiana 喜愛成
Get my emails | Follow on Twitter| Like on Facebook | Subscribe on YouTube

Kiana Danial

#1 Best Selling Author. Helping you accelerate your retirement with Triple Compounding™ Former engineer on a mission to help 1 million households take control of their finances. Founder & CEO of Invest Diva.

Bitcoin Drops Entering 2026: Is It Still Worth Investing? The Answer Most Investors Miss

January 2, 2026 No Comments

Bitcoin has entered 2026 under pressure, with prices pulling back after a volatile period that left many investors questioning whether the opportunity has passed. Headlines are once again split between fear and optimism, with some calling the recent drop a warning sign and others viewing it as a healthy reset.

Unlike speculative assets that rely on constant growth stories, Bitcoin’s relevance continues to rest on its role as a scarce, decentralised digital asset that operates outside traditional financial systems. The key question for investors now is not whether Bitcoin will remain volatile – but whether this moment represents risk, opportunity, or something most investors misunderstand.

3 Bullish And 3 Risky Forces Shaping American Express Stock (AXP) Into 2026

December 26, 2025 No Comments

American Express is often viewed as a mature, well understood credit card company, but its role in the financial system is broader than many investors realize.

It sits at the center of consumer spending, business payments, travel, credit risk, and data driven decision making. As these areas evolve, the dynamics shaping American Express stock are becoming more complex and, in some cases, less obvious.

Premium consumer behavior, business spending patterns, regulatory scrutiny, and technological change are all influencing how payment companies operate and compete.

Micron Stock Surges After Blowout Earnings: Is MU Still A Buy In 2026?

December 19, 2025 No Comments

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) has quietly become one of the most important companies supporting the AI boom – even if it doesn’t receive the same attention as Nvidia or other high-profile AI names.

While much of the focus is on GPUs and AI software, Micron operates behind the scenes, supplying the memory that allows AI systems, data centres, and cloud platforms to function at scale.

Following a strong earnings update, Micron’s stock surged and quickly returned to the centre of market attention. The rally reflects growing confidence that the company’s strategic shift away from lower margin consumer products toward higher-value enterprise and data-centre memory is gaining traction.

Why Big Tech Is Quietly Buying Western Digital (WDC) Stock

December 12, 2025 No Comments

Western Digital Corporation (WDC) has been on a tear, its stock price soaring over 270% year-to-date as of early December 2025.

This massive growth isn’t just hype; it’s fueled by a perfect storm of events, including the strategic spin-off of its flash business, SanDisk, and an insatiable global demand for data storage driven by the AI revolution.

As a now “pure-play” Hard Disk Drive (HDD) manufacturer, WDC is uniquely positioned as the landlord for the internet’s exploding data. But with such a meteoric rise, is there still room for growth, or is the stock overheated?

Marvell (MRVL) Stock: The Hidden AI Powerhouse Wall Street Keeps Underestimating

December 5, 2025 No Comments

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) is quickly becoming one of the most important companies in the AI infrastructure space – even though many investors still aren’t sure what the business actually does.

While most headlines focus on Nvidia and its GPUs, Marvell builds the networking, optical, and custom silicon chips that help AI models move data faster and run more efficiently. In its latest earnings report, Marvell posted strong double-digit growth in its data center business and shared bold guidance for the next few years, sending MRVL stock higher.

2 Months Ago Oracle Stock (ORCL) Was Flying And Now… The Mood Has Flipped. Is A Comeback Still On The Table?

November 28, 2025 No Comments

Oracle is one of the biggest names in enterprise software and cloud services. They power databases used by governments, banks, hospitals, airlines, and global corporations. For years they were known for steady tech growth, not big surprises.

Then something wild happened.

Only two months ago Oracle stock was flying. Analysts cheered. AI deals stacked up. The company felt like it had finally stepped into a new era.

Now the mood has flipped.

USDCAD Tests Below Ichimoku – Oil, Fed Rate Hike Battle