Joby Aviation (JOBY) Stock Just Took Off To A New High: Are You On Board?

Joby Aviation (JOBY) isn’t just building air taxis, it’s rewriting the rules of urban aviation. With cutting edge electric vertical take off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, Joby is aiming to be the first company to commercialize flying taxis at scale. 

Backed by deep pocketed partners like Toyota and gearing up for commercial operations in Dubai by 2026, Joby isn’t chasing hype, it’s executing a real industrial shift.

Since my last blog in June, where I explored Joby’s potential, the stock has surged – just recently hitting a new high of $18.33. 

Why the spike? In Q1 2025, Joby achieved several major milestones: production of FAA-conforming aircraft officially began, its first aircraft was delivered to the U.S. Department of Defense, and the company logged over 40,000 miles of test flights with pilots onboard. FAA certification is now in its final phase, Type Inspection Authorization (TIA), with 43% of critical Stage 4 testing completed. 

While commercial revenue hasn’t kicked in yet, investor confidence is clearly taking off. A 14% rally following delivery to the UAE confirms that Joby is no longer just a concept, it’s turning execution into momentum. For early believers, this could be the Tesla of the skies.

Still, commercialization is a high stakes game. Joby may have over $800 million in liquidity and no long term debt, but its future hinges on clearing regulatory hurdles and staying ahead of rising competition from peers like Archer. Any delay in FAA certification or geopolitical hiccup could alter the trajectory.

So, is Joby still a speculative moonshot or a soon-to-be aerospace juggernaut that’s still undervalued?

Unlike other SPAC-era eVTOL firms still stuck in prototype mode, Joby is already flying, testing, and scaling. Its vertically integrated factory model is built to scale up to 500 aircraft annually, creating a production moat that few can rival.

But Joby isn’t just manufacturing vehicles, it’s building an entire ecosystem: from infrastructure and international partnerships to regulatory frameworks.

Let’s break it down using the IDDA Framework: Capital, Intentional, Fundamentals, Sentimental, and Technical.

IDDA Point 1 & 2: Capital & Intentional

Before investing in Joby Aviation, ask yourself:
✅ Do you want exposure to the next frontier of mobility-urban air travel?

✅ Are you looking to invest early in a company with both government and international commercial partnerships?
✅ Do you believe in long-term plays that win through regulatory execution and manufacturing scale, not media buzz?

Joby is intentionally positioning itself as the first-mover in the eVTOL space, not just by speed to market, but by owning the entire process, from certification to manufacturing to operations. Its $1 billion MoU with Abdul Latif Jameel signals a massive international commitment, starting in Dubai. At home, its DoD contracts and Toyota partnership give it financial and operational credibility that most emerging tech companies could only dream of.

Rather than burn cash chasing headlines, Joby is stacking real milestones. From static load testing to full pilot on-board flights, it’s earning its certifications through data and delivery.

And with its aircraft expected to serve both civilian and defense sectors, the company isn’t just betting on tourism or convenience, it’s building an entirely new aviation vertical that could be as essential as ride hailing is today.

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IDDA Point 3: Fundamentals

Fundamental Analysis

🔹Joby Aviation is quickly evolving from a prototype-stage company into a near-commercial aerospace player with real operations, strong cash reserves, and solid regulatory progress. In Q1 2025, it began producing FAA-conforming aircraft and delivered its first to the U.S. Department of Defense – a key milestone. Its Marina facility now produces up to 24 aircraft per year, with plans to scale to 500 annually at its Dayton site. With five full-scale aircraft built, numerous piloted test flights completed, and successful fault-tolerant landings, Joby is proving its capabilities. Meanwhile, it’s building a vertically integrated, Toyota style manufacturing model to improve long-term efficiency and reliability.

🔹Financially, Joby is still in a high-spending, pre-revenue phase, which is normal for a company at this stage. As of Q1 2025, it had around $813 million in cash, giving it strong liquidity despite reporting a $163 million operating loss. Its net loss also narrowed sharply from $246 million in Q4 2024 to $82 million in Q1, thanks to higher income and lower R&D costs. The company has no long term debt and a strong balance sheet, with Toyota remaining a key backer and a potential $250 million follow up investment still on the table.

🔹On the regulatory front, Joby has advanced into Stage 4 of the FAA certification process, known as Testing & Analysis, and has already completed 43% of this stage. The next step which is Stage 5 or “Show & Verify” will be critical in unlocking commercial operations. The company has also completed Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight tests, static load tests on its aircraft structure, and logged over 40,000 miles of real-world flights, including hover and transition phases with pilots onboard. These milestones demonstrate tangible progress toward certification, positioning Joby as a front-runner in the eVTOL space. Commercial operations are slated to begin in Dubai as early as 2026, with vertiport infrastructure already under development.

🔹To accelerate international commercialization, Joby signed a $1 billion memorandum of understanding with Abdul Latif Jameel, covering aircraft purchases, services, and infrastructure expansion across the Middle East. This complements the company’s domestic and defense growth strategies, with future revenue anticipated from both aircraft sales and operating services like air taxi networks.

Fundamental Risk: High

IDDA Point 4: Sentimental

Strengths

✅FAA Certification Progress – Joby is in the final phase (TIA) of FAA certification, making it the frontrunner in bringing eVTOL aircraft to market which is well ahead of competitors like Archer and Eve.

✅Strong Liquidity & Strategic Backing – With over $800 million in cash and no long term debt, plus backing from Toyota and a $1B MoU with Abdul Latif Jameel, Joby is financially equipped to scale.

✅First-Mover Advantage in a Massive Market – Joby is positioned to be a commercial pioneer in the projected $170 billion eVTOL market by 2034, with operations set to launch in Dubai by 2026.

Risks

❌Regulatory & Certification Risk – Despite strong progress, FAA approval is not guaranteed. Any delays in Stage 4/5 testing or setbacks could derail commercialization timelines and hurt investor sentiment.

❌Pre-Revenue with High Burn Rate – Joby remains a pre-revenue company with significant operating losses and capital expenditures, which increases financial risk if timelines stretch.

❌Market & Narrative Volatility – Joby’s valuation is largely driven by sentiment and milestones rather than fundamentals. A missed deadline or competitor breakthrough (e.g., Archer FAA approval) could quickly reverse bullish momentum.

Investor sentiment around Joby Aviation has turned increasingly bullish, driven by its visible progress toward FAA certification, successful aircraft delivery to the UAE, and a strong narrative positioning it as a first-mover in the projected $170 billion eVTOL market.

The recent stock rally reflects growing confidence that Joby is transitioning from speculative tech to a credible aviation operator, with investors focusing more on milestone execution than traditional revenue or earnings metrics. 

The market sees Joby not just as an urban air taxi company, but as a company redefining aerospace and mobility, benefitting from strategic tailwinds like decarbonization, urbanization, and geopolitical partnerships.

However, this optimism remains fragile and highly sensitive to certification delays, competitive threats from peers like Archer, and the risk of sentiment shifts if timelines slip or geopolitical support weakens. In this sentiment driven phase, Joby’s stock performance is closely tied to its ability to meet regulatory milestones and maintain narrative credibility.

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Sentimental Risk: Very High

IDDA Point 5: Technical

On the weekly chart:
🟢 The last candlestick was very bullish, signifying a surge of buyers
🟢 The candlesticks are positioned well above the cloud, reinforcing the bullish momentum
🔻 RSI is at 86.79, which is extremely overbought and indicates a potential pullback in the near term

On the weekly chart, Joby surged last week to a new high of $18.83, surpassing all three profit taking levels outlined in my previous blog. The last candlestick was extremely bullish, indicating a very strong buyer momentum, and the candlesticks are positioned well above the Ichimoku Cloud, reinforcing the bullish trend.

However, the RSI is at 86.79, which is extremely overbought and suggests the possibility of a near term pullback. Given the stock’s history of sharp swing and volatility, there’s a chance we could see a significant retracement, potentially up to 78%, before the next leg higher.

Investors looking to get in JOBY can consider these Buy Limit Entries:

📌13.19 (High Risk)

📌11.62 (High Risk)

📌10.06 (Medium Risk)

📌7.78 (Low Risk)

Investors looking to take profit can consider these Sell Limit Levels:

🎯18.33 (Short term)

🎯21.39 (Medium term)

🎯23.38 (Long term)

🎯24.96 (Long term)

Here are the Invest Diva ‘Confidence Compass’ questions to ask yourself before buying at each level:

1. If I buy at this price and the price drops by another 50%, how would I feel? Would I panic, or would I buy more to dollar-cost average at lower prices? (hint: this question also reveals your 
2. CONFIDENCE in the asset you’re planning to invest in).
   
3. If I don’t buy at this price and the stock suddenly turns around and starts going up again, will I beat myself up for not having bought at this level?

Remember: Investing is personal, and what is right for me might not be right for you. Always do your own due diligence. You should ONLY invest based on your own risk tolerance and your timeframe for reaching your portfolio goals

Technical Risk: High

Final Thoughts on Joby Aviation (JOBY)

Joby Aviation (JOBY) is no longer just a futuristic concept – it’s a front-runner in the eVTOL race, making bold moves toward real-world commercialization.

With FAA certification now in its final phase (TIA), over 40,000 miles of test flights completed, and its first aircraft delivered to the U.S. Department of Defense, Joby is rapidly proving it has more than just a compelling vision.

A strong balance sheet with over $800 million in liquidity, no long-term debt, and strategic backing from Toyota gives it the financial runway to continue scaling. Its $1B partnership with Abdul Latif Jameel and commercial launch plans in Dubai by 2026 further solidify its global ambitions.

Technically, JOBY just hit a new high of $18.83 with strong bullish momentum above the Ichimoku Cloud. However, an overbought RSI of 86.79 signals a possible short-term pullback. Despite this, the long-term uptrend looks solid, backed by regulatory progress and investor confidence.

➡️ Key Takeaways: Partial Sell for Short-Term Profits / Buy or Hold for Long-Term Accumulation Play (Minimum High Risk Tolerance)

Joby Aviation offers a unique high-risk, high-reward opportunity for investors with a higher risk tolerance looking to tap into the future of transportation.

While short-term volatility is expected as the company progresses through certification and early commercialization – creating opportunities to take profits – their first-mover advantage, strategic execution, and massive addressable market position Joby as a strong long-term contender in the urban air mobility space.

Overall Stock Risk: High

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