Is Joby (JOBY) Aviation Poised For Takeoff? 3 Growth Signals In The Race For eVTOL Urban Air Mobility Dominance

Joby Aviation is at the forefront of a bold new vision: transforming how people move through cities using electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. 

With a dual-revenue model selling aircraft at approximately $5 million each and operating air taxis projected to earn over $2.2 million per unit annually, Joby aims to generate $2.13 billion in revenue by 2028.

Backed by powerful partners like Toyota, Delta, and Uber, the company is closing in on FAA certification, expanding production capacity, and securing international agreements like its $1B+ Saudi Arabia MoU. 

Yet, despite its progress, Joby remains a pre-revenue company with a rich valuation and heavy R&D spend, operating in an unproven market with high regulatory and execution risk. 

In this blog, we’ll explore its three potential growth signals and whether Joby’s first-mover advantage and futuristic vision justify the hype or if it’s a speculative play grounded more in potential than in profit.

So let’s break it down using the Invest Diva Diamond Analysis (IDDA) Framework:
Capital, Intentional, Fundamental, Sentimental, and Technical.

IDDA Point 1 & 2: Capital & Intentional

Before investing in Joby Aviation (JOBY), ask yourself:
✅ Are you looking for exposure to a first-mover in the futuristic eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) space with the potential to revolutionize urban air mobility?
✅ Do you believe in the long-term viability of air taxis and aerial ridesharing as a high-growth transportation solution in cities like Dubai, New York, and Riyadh?
✅ Are you comfortable investing in a pre-revenue company that trades on vision, milestones, and strategic backing, rather than current profitability?

Joby isn’t just another aviation startup, it’s one of the furthest along in FAA certification, with successful full-scale test flights and deep alliances with power players like Toyota, Uber, and Delta. The company is building toward a dual-revenue model of selling aircraft and operating its own air taxi service, with projected revenues of $2.13 billion by 2028.

But Joby comes with real risks: it’s still burning cash with no revenue, faces regulatory hurdles, and operates in an unproven market where commercialization timelines remain fluid. The current $6.6B market cap is built on future potential, not present fundamentals.

That said, Joby’s strong balance sheet (boosted by Toyota’s $500M investment), growing international traction, and first-mover certification advantage make it a standout speculative growth play in a nascent sector.

If you’re building a portfolio that embraces innovation, deep tech, and high-risk/high-reward potential, JOBY could be your moonshot but it’s not a stock for passive income seekers or conservative investors. JOBY is for visionaries who see the future of transportation in the sky and are willing to wait (and stomach volatility) for the payoff.

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IDDA Point 3: Fundamentals

🔹Business Model & Market Opportunity (Growth Signal 1)
Joby Aviation is pioneering electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft aimed at transforming urban air mobility through aerial ridesharing and aircraft sales. The company is pursuing a dual-revenue model, direct aircraft sales at approximately $5M per unit and air taxi operations expected to generate $2.2M+ per aircraft annually. By 2028, Joby projects $2.13B in annual revenue, with $1.25B from sales and $880M from services.

🔹Technology & Certification Progress (Growth Signal 2)
Joby has achieved major milestones, including full-scale piloted transitions between vertical and cruise flight. It is nearing the final stage of FAA certification (targeted for 2H 2025) and has applied for regulatory approval in the UAE, with commercial launches planned for the Middle East by 2026. Active testing is underway, including piloted flights and simultaneous aircraft trials, which support readiness for passenger service.

🔹Strategic Backing & Expansion Plans (Growth Signal 3)
Strong backing from Toyota (top shareholder) and partners like Delta and Uber enhances Joby’s go-to-market credibility. Toyota recently committed $500M (with $250M already invested), lifting Joby’s cash reserves to approximately $1.3B. This capital supports expansion, including a new Ohio facility aiming to scale production to 500 aircraft/year. Strategic agreements, such as the MoU with Abdul Latif Jameel to supply up to 200 aircraft in Saudi Arabia ( around $1B deal), underscore global interest in Joby’s product.

🔹Financial Health & Capital Runway
Despite being pre-revenue, Joby is well capitalized with a cash runway extending at least two years. The company used $125M in Q1 2025 and anticipates spending up to $540M in 2025, potentially ending the year with around $900M in liquidity. However, it posted an $82.4M net loss in Q1 and will likely continue incurring high R&D and operational costs as it scales.

🔹Challenges & Risks
Key hurdles include regulatory approvals, commercial adoption (especially in harsh environments like the Middle East), and the broader uncertainty of the urban air mobility market. The company faces competition from Archer Aviation, Vertical Aerospace, and Airbus, each targeting different geographic and operational niches.

Fundamental Risk: High

IDDA Point 4: Sentimental

Strengths

✅Strong Strategic Backing – Toyota’s $894M total investment and deep manufacturing alliance boost investor confidence in Joby’s ability to scale production efficiently.

✅First-Mover Advantage in eVTOL – Joby is seen as one of the furthest along in the FAA certification process, giving it a potential head start in the race to commercialize urban air mobility.

✅High-Profile Global Partnerships – The $1B+ MoU with Saudi Arabia and progress in Dubai position Joby in lucrative, tech-forward markets that could accelerate early adoption and revenue streams.

Risks

❌No Revenue Yet – Despite years of development and strong backing, Joby remains a pre-revenue company with no current sales, making it purely speculative.

❌Execution and Certification Risks – FAA and international approvals are still pending, and any delay could significantly push out commercialization timelines and burn more cash.

❌ Premium Valuation Without Fundamentals – A $6.6B market cap with no revenue leads to sky-high valuation multiples (e.g., EV/Sales of 2,965x), which many investors view as unsustainable without proof of scale.

Investor sentiment toward Joby Aviation reflects a blend of speculative optimism and cautious skepticism. The stock’s sharp rise after Toyota’s $500M investment and a $1B+ Saudi MoU signals excitement over its potential as a first-mover in the eVTOL space, especially with early FAA progress and traction in innovation-focused regions like Dubai.

However, with no current revenue and a $6.6B market cap, investor confidence is rooted more in future expectations than fundamentals.

While strategic partnerships and technical milestones bolster belief in its long-term vision, risks around certification, execution, and unproven scalability temper enthusiasm, making Joby a high-risk, high-reward bet.

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Sentimental Risk: High

IDDA Point 5: Technical

On the weekly chart, technical signals are mixed:

🔻 The future Ichimoku cloud is bearish but thinning, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening.
🟨 The stock has been consolidating and moving sideways since 2023, reflecting a choppy and volatile pattern.
🟢 Candlesticks are currently above the cloud, with the cloud acting as a support zone.

This extended period of consolidation highlights the speculative nature of the asset, offering potential for high risk, short-term trading rather than long-term buy and hold strategies.

Over the past year, the stock has repeatedly bounced off the $4.75 level, establishing it as a strong support. It’s now in the upward phase of the consolidation range and approaching a key resistance level at $10.67.

A breakout above this level could signal the start of sustained bullish momentum. However, if the price fails to break through and reverses, the sideways consolidation is likely to continue.

Investors looking to add JOBY into their portfolio can consider the following buy limit entries

📌 7.81 (High Risk – FOMO entry)

📌 6.94 (High Risk)

📌 6.02 (Medium Risk)

📌 4.75 (Low Risk)

Profit taking ideas can be considered as these levels:

🎯10.67

🎯12.02

🎯13.25

🎯14.29

Here are the Invest Diva ‘Confidence Compass’ questions to ask yourself before buying at each level:

1. If I buy at this price and the price drops by another 50%, how would I feel? Would I panic, or would I buy more to dollar-cost average at lower prices? (hint: this question also reveals your CONFIDENCE in the asset you’re planning to invest in).
   
2. If I don’t buy at this price and the stock suddenly turns around and starts going up again, will I beat myself up for not having bought at this level?

Remember: Investing is personal, and what is right for me might not be right for you. Always do your own due diligence. You should ONLY invest based on your own risk tolerance and your timeframe for reaching your portfolio goals

Technical Risk: High

Final Thoughts on Joby Aviation

Joby Aviation (JOBY) is a high risk, high reward play on the future of urban air mobility.

The company is developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft and targets $2.13B in annual revenue by 2028 through a dual-revenue model of aircraft sales and air taxi services.

Backed by strategic partners like Toyota, Delta, and Uber, and progressing toward FAA certification with global expansion plans including a $1B+ deal in Saudi Arabia, Joby is positioning itself as a first-mover in a nascent, innovation driven market.

However, with no current revenue and a $6.6B valuation, the investment case hinges on future execution amid regulatory, financial, and market adoption risks.

➡️ Recommendation: Buy / High-Risk Speculative Growth Asset
For investors with high risk tolerance and an extremely long term, visionary outlook, JOBY offers early exposure to a potentially transformative sector. While speculative, its strong strategic backing, certification progress, and international momentum could unlock significant future value.

Overall Risk: High

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