Looking to today, the final reading of UK GDP in the fourth quarter might invoke a small reaction in the market. German regional inflation numbers might also have an impact, though European consumer confidence numbers at 10am will probably be a bigger mover. We’ll be looking towards month end, quarter end and financial year end flows to start moving the market, even though Mondayis officially the cut-off point. Also of interest, later in the day will be ECB member and Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann speaking after the European close. Following his comments about QE and negative rates being a possibility earlier this week, we’ll be trying to get a bit of an insight as to what the ECB might do next week at their monetary policy meeting – because at the moment nobody has a clue!
Intraday Technical Levels
EUR/USD Intraday: capped by a negative trend line.
Our preference: Short positions below 1.378 with targets @ 1.37 & 1.3685 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.378 look for further upside with 1.381 & 1.3845 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish. The pair is rebounding bur remains capped by a declining trend line.
Supports and resistances:
1.3845
1.381
1.378
1.3732 Last
1.37
1.3685
1.366
GBP/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Our preference: Long positions above 1.659 with targets @ 1.6645 & 1.6665 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.659 look for further downside with 1.655 & 1.6505 as targets.
Comment: The pair has validated a bullish flag and is rebounding above its support.
Supports and resistances:
1.67
1.6665
1.6645
1.6616 Last
1.659
1.655
1.6505
USD/JPY Intraday: under pressure.
Our preference: Short positions below 102.45 with targets @ 101.95 & 101.75 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 102.45 look for further upside with 102.65 & 102.85 as targets.
Comment: The pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance.
Supports and resistances:
102.85
102.65
102.45
102.355 Last
101.95
101.75
101.45
USD/CHF Intraday: further upside
Our preference: Long positions above 0.8835 with targets @ 0.891 & 0.893 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.8835 look for further downside with 0.881 & 0.8785 as targets.
Comment: The pair is supported by a rising trend line.
Supports and resistances:
0.895
0.893
0.891
0.8873 Last
0.8835
0.881
0.8785
NZD/USD Intraday: further upside
Our preference: Long positions above 0.8655 with targets @ 0.87 & 0.872 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.8655 look for further downside with 0.862 & 0.8585 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Supports and resistances:
0.875
0.872
0.87
0.8685 Last
0.8655
0.862
0.8585
AUD/USD Intraday: supported by a rising trend line
Our preference: Long positions above 0.924 with targets @ 0.93 & 0.934 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.924 look for further downside with 0.921 & 0.918 as targets.
Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.
Supports and resistances:
0.9385
0.934
0.93
0.9251 Last
0.924
0.921
0.918
USD/CAD Intraday: under pressure
Our preference: Short positions below 1.107 with targets @ 1.0975 & 1.095 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.107 look for further upside with 1.1105 & 1.1145 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum. The pair remains within a bearish channel.
Supports and resistances:
1.1145
1.1105
1.107
1.1018 Last
1.0975
1.095
1.0905
