アメリカFOMC発表に期待高まる

アメリカからは多くの経済データが発表されました。
一方昨夜「歴史的」なブリザードが北東海岸を襲うと厳戒態勢を天気予報が報じていた結果が2インチの積雪であったことは見ないことにしておきましょう。
ちなみにイランでは2メートルの積雪でも学校に行きます。
アメリカのメディアはドラマチックな事件が大好きなのです。ニューヨーク時間は雪とは異なった悪いデータの発表から始まりました。
アメリカの耐久財受注は0.5%の上昇の予測から一転、実際は3.4%の下落となりました。
このニュースを受けてドルには困惑が広がり、FRBが今年中に緩和を引き締める可能性があるのかどうか見極めたいFXトレーダーたちは来るFOMC発表に期待を高めています。

前回のFOMC発表では、FRBのジャネット・イエレン総裁は未だ低金利政策の継続の話し合いになると「十分な長期間」という言葉に加え、通常化政策を考える際には「忍耐強く」焦らないという表現でもってこれを表すことにしているようです。ますますドルの行方に不透明さを増しています。

12月の議事録によれば、FRBの職員らはインフレ圧力の下落に困惑しており、4月より前の金利上昇は難しいと考えているようです。政策担当者は現在の1.4%よりもう少し高い価格上昇を望んでいると繰り返し主張しており、政策を変更する前により2%のターゲットに近い数値を望んでいます。

FRBはもちろん国内経済が元気を取り戻していることに気づいていますが。同時にそれが不利になり売る可能性もあります。

FRBの実際の発言はハト派的「十分長い期間」といったフレーズを含んでおり、「忍耐強い」調整といったわずかにタカ派的発言とともに合わせることでバランスをとっています。この場合、他の経済圏が悪化しつつあり、中央銀行が量的緩和措置をとっているときはUSドルは他の通貨に対してまだドル高が維持できます。

もちろんこのシナリオは過去何度も既に広く予見されているもので、FRBから特に追加の発表がなかったからといってドルを含む通貨ペアの動きにそれほど大きく影響することはないでしょう。今日はこの後CB消費者信頼感指数と新規住宅売上高が発表されます。

イエレン総裁と彼女の頼もしい仲間たちは今週中に何かサプライズをしかけてくるでしょうか？皆さんはどう思いますか？

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Kiana Danial

#1 Best Selling Author. Helping you accelerate your retirement with Triple Compounding™ Former engineer on a mission to help 1 million households take control of their finances. Founder & CEO of Invest Diva.

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