One of the keys to success for trend traders is finding out what’s trending in the markets. In the forex world, our currency pair is dancing on the dance floor (the chart). One of the ways to forecast its next move (or moves) is to find patterns in its previous moves. Since we have all the history of its movements right in front of us in our chart, the easiest way to find the patterns is by drawing lines and interpreting them.
Now the question is, what’s trending on the dance floor?
I’m going to turn to my good friend Twitter to find out. Let me see… at the time I’m writing this the trends are #ILovePeopleThat, #TheBestFeelingIsWhen, #TheVoice … Wait a minute. Is Twitter the write place to look for trends in the forex world? I guess not.
What’s Trending in the Forex Market?
In the forex world, the most well-known expression is, “The trend is your friend.” A trend on the forex dance floor (chart) is basically the direction in which the currency pair has been moving for a while. The idea behind it is that the pair will probably continue to trade in that direction until it hits an “obstacle.” These obstacles are called support and resistance.
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Of course, depending on the time frame of your chart, you may see different trends for different periods of time. For example, you may see a downward trend in the 1-hour chart of EUR/USD on April 15, 2011:
Trending in Forex Market – Down Trend
In this hourly chart you can see Downtrend, trending on an hourly basis.
But if at that very moment, you switch to the daily chart of EUR/USD, you will see that the pair is on an overall uptrend, with the downtrend being a temporary minor trend.
Trending in Forex Market – Uptrend on Daily Chart
In the daily chart you can see Uptrend, trending on a daily basis.
In other words, on an hourly basis, the pair is moving downward, but in a longer-term daily time frame, the pair is seen to be in an uptrend.
So as you can see, trends can be long term, short term, upward, downward, and even sideways. As the first step in determining the trend, many traders check out a long-term time frame like the daily chart of each currency pair, look for the strongest trend in its direction, then eventually move to shorter-term time frames. However, some other traders do the opposite and move from a shorter time frame to a longer one (zoom out).
Trading in the direction of the trend on the daily chart is like riding a bicycle with the wind at your back. You don’t want to go against the wind, do you? By trading with a trend, you will have the momentum of the market behind you.
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Related:
- The Art of Drawing Trend Lines
- The Breakout – Support, Resistance Analysis
- Support and Resistance – Technical Analysis Basics
- Can Day Trading on the Side be Profitable?
- Online Risk Management for Traders & Investors
- Day Trading Strategy for Beginners
- Technical Analysis Training Online
Tips and Tricks about Forex Trading
トレンドって何?
さて、通貨ペアはダンスフロア(チャート)の上で踊っています。ペアの次の動きを予測する方法の1つは、過去の動きを見てパターンを見つけることよね。幸い目の前のチャートにはペアの過去の全ての動きが記録されているから、一番簡単な方法はこれに線を引いてみることね。
ではここで質問。ダンスフロアのトレンドとは何でしょう?
ツイッターで調べてみよっか、えーっと、今のトレンドは・・・#ILovePeopleThat, #TheBestFeelingIsWhen, #TheVoice …ちょい待ち、ツイッターってFXのトレンドをつぶやくとこだっけ?多分ちょっと違うわよね。
「トレンドを友とせよ」っていうのは為替の世界ではもっとも有名な格言ね。FXダンスフロア(チャート)でいうトレンドっていうのは基本的に通貨ペアがある期間内に動いている方向のことをいうのよ。通貨ペアは多分だけど、「障害物」にあたるまでトレンドと同じ方向に動き続けるだろうって考えられるの。この障害物は、サポートとレジスタンスと呼ばれているわ。
もちろん、チャートのタイムフレームによってそれぞれ異なったトレンドが見えるはず。例えば、2011年4月15日のユーロドルの1時間足チャートで下降トレンドが確認できるわね。(クリックで拡大)
1時間足チャート(下降トレンド)でも日足チャートに変更してみると、ペアが全体的に上昇トレンドにあることがわかるわ。下降トレンドは一時的なトレンドに過ぎなかったのね。(クリックで拡大)
日足チャート(上昇トレンド1時間ベースで見ると、ペアは下降トレンドで動いているわね。けど長めの日足タイムフレームでみると、ペアは上昇トレンドにあることがわかるはず。
このように、トレンドは長期、短期、上昇、下降、または横ばいにもなります。トレンドを決定するに際して、多くのトレーダーはまず日足のような比較的長期のチャートを確認して、強いトレンドを探すの。それから短期のチャートを見に行くのよ。一方、これと全く逆に短期を確認してから長期に移るトレーダーもいるわ。(ズームアウト)
トレンドにあわせた取引は、ちょうと風に背中を押されながら自転車に乗るようなものよ。誰も向かい風の中進みたくないでしょ?トレンドにそって取引をすれば、きっと市場があなたの後押しをしてくれるわ。
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