Happy new year Invest Divas! The currency pairs are back in action and we already have some pip-making ideas. Here are some USDCAD 2017 trading ideas, as the pair tests the upper band of the daily Ichimoku cloud.
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Let’s analyze this naughty pair from three points of the Invest Diva Diamond.
Technical Analysis – USDCAD 2017
The USD/CAD pair ended 2016 with a giant Doji candlestick pattern, as it tested the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud. We already entered a bullish position at the 23% Fibonacci retracement level back in December. And by “we” I mean the Invest Diva group members. Our targets were 1.3558 (which we already reached) and 1.3640 (pending.)
USDCAD 2017 Technical Analysis
With the main support and pivot level set at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3250, there is a chance that the pair forms a Double Top chart pattern in which case our bullish outlook would reverse.
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However for that to happen, the pair has to break the cloud, and key support levels. Join our trading group to get notifications.
Fundamentals: US vs. Canada
US side: The Fed is set to raise its interest rates multiple times in 2017. Trump is set to take office on January 20th, promising huge fiscal stimulus injections. These are all good, however as we said last year, much of the optimism is already priced in the USD; For now.
Canada’s side: The key “Loonie shaker” could continue to be oil. And thanks to the OPEC and non-OPEC decisions last year to cut their production, oil could continue to rise well into 2017, taking Mr. Loonie with it.
The combination of the fundamentals creates a bit of a shaky outlook for USDCAD 2017.
Tuesday: German Unemployment Change (DEC) released at 8:55 AM GMT followed by the Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA (DEC) at 9:30 AM. Canada will release their Leading Indicator (MoM) (NOV) at 12 PM GMT and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be out at 3 PM to further shake the USD/CAD pair.
Wednesday: During the Asian session we have the Caixin China PMI Composite (DEC). Moving on to the London session, we have Services PMI numbers out of Spain, Italy, France, Germany the EU and the UK between 8:45 and 9:30 AM which could create volatility in the GBP and EUR crosses.
During the New York session, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes (DEC 14) released at 7 PM GMT. While we already know the results of the last Fed meeting, the details could provide more in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on raising interest rates.
USDCAD ended 2016 in mixed trading bias. 38% of traders were bullish on the pair. However, while trading crowd was grown less net-short from from the final trading day, it further short since the week before.
On first trading day of 2017, the bulls started in power during the Asian session but then they gave in. Stay tuned for more updates on market sentiment updates as we are pretty confused at the moment!
USDCAD 2017 – Trading Strategy
Putting the technical, fundamental and sentimental points of the IDDA approach together, there are three different scenarios for USDCAD, published in our investing group.
Here are Invest Diva’s calculations for important approximate levels for USD/CAD to keep an eye on:
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