The pick of the day is EUR/USD as Mr. Euro dances against Ms. USA. The pair finally gave up its crab dance and continued down as we predicted. Here is all the art they have been creating on the chart:
Validated a double top pattern, a rising wedge (reversal pattern) and dancing below the Ichimoku cloud with the RSI flattening near the oversold zone.
We are currently looking at short positions below 1.378 with targets @ 1.345 & 1.33 in extension. Alternative scenario would be above 1.378 for further upside with 1.4 & 1.4245 as targets.
Intraday look for Short positions below 1.356 with targets at 1.35 and 1.347 in extension.
Long term traders. Don’t sweat the small losses and look at the big picture. Short term traders, invest responsibly. And wait, are we hooked up on the social media? To get the most recent intraday updates, don’t forget to follow Invest Diva on Twitter and Facebook.
Hot Market Moving News
Markets broadly speaking were down yesterday. With the exception of Mr. Kiwi. The big story of the morning London session continues to be the New Zealand Dollar, continuing its rally after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked interest rates once again during the Asia session. And if that wasn’t enough for Kiwi bulls, they hinted at possibly a few more before the end of the year! The spike in Kiwi didn’t stop as European traders decided to jump in on the momentum to put the Kiwi up big time for the Thursday trading session
In the UK the number of people employed grew by 345,000 on the prior quarter to 30.54 million, the fastest quarterly growth since records began, and currently unemployment is at the lowest level since January 2009. All very positive on the employment front but the excuses are being pulled out for wage growth, down 0.7%. . With CPI sitting at 1.8%, even excluding bonuses earnings were up by a paltry 0.9%. It would seem that the economy looks much healthier but our Britt friends sitting within it are feeling a lot more ill.
In Europe attention is back on the gloomy asset back securities (ABS). Last week the ECB announced a stimulus package to buy “high quality” ABS, which it has yet to fully define or find for that matter. France unveils new spending cuts to curb business costs, public spending and whatever it can set its eyes on. Mr Hollande is getting it in the ear from both sides, he has fallen well behind of the EU’s budget deficit targets which have already been delayed. Furthermore pressure from the ruling Socialist party to change course it mounting and there is a long line of party rebels sticking the boot in whenever they can. Brussels is demanding a reduction of budget deficit to 3% by the next year, this additional €4bn in extra cuts will go some way to achieving the targets, but the target sign on Mr Hollandes forehead is growing in tandem. Michel Sapin, finance minister has gallantly stepped into the breach saying to the dissidents there would be a dialogue “but no negotiation”. No one is sure as yet whether hollow platitudes will be sufficient to calm the angry crowds.
US stocks edged lower yesterday with indexes pulling back from recent record highs. Wall street is struggling for direction currently with moves ebbing and flowing and ending up all but unchanged. The dollar took a bit of a pounding on reduced expectations of an early FED rate hike, markets widely anticipate no news from the FOMC meeting next week. The World Bank in a cautious and typically sedate manner cut global growth forecasts for 2014 to 2.8% from 3.2% surmising that the US winter and situation in Ukraine caused the slowdown, however those issues seem to be in the fast and the globe is now on sound footing. It is all a bit doom and gloom from the US at the moment and President Obama is getting some flack as well. In a Bloomberg National Poll, favourability ratings hit their lowest point in his presidency, with only 44% of Americans saying that they have positive feelings towards him.
Today we have already seen Australian unemployment figures come out broadly in line with expectations. Today is relatively quiet with few obvious market movers, save for european CPI followed by US retail sales this afternoon
Intraday Forex Technical Levels
GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 1.678 with targets @ 1.6845 & 1.687 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Below 1.678 look for further downside with 1.676 & 1.673 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair remains on the upside and is approaching its previous top.
Supports and resistances:
1.6885
1.687
1.6845
1.6825 Last
1.678
1.676
1.673
USD/JPY Intraday: key resistance at 102.2.
Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 102.2 with targets @ 101.9 & 101.8 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Above 102.2 look for further upside with 102.4 & 102.6 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance.
Supports and resistances:
102.6
102.4
102.2
102.075 Last
101.9
101.8
101.7
USD/CHF Intraday: the upside prevails.
Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.8965 with targets @ 0.9015 & 0.9035 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Below 0.8965 look for further downside with 0.894 & 0.8905 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair stands above its support and remains on the upside.
Supports and resistances:
0.906
0.9035
0.9015
0.90 Last
0.8965
0.894
0.8905
NZD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.862 with targets @ 0.8685 & 0.871 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Below 0.862 look for further downside with 0.8565 & 0.8525 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: The RSI is well directed. The pair has broken above its resistance and remains on the upside.
Supports and resistances:
0.8745
0.871
0.8685
0.8674 Last
0.862
0.8565
0.8525
AUD/USD Intraday: supported by a rising trend line.
Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.9365 with targets @ 0.9415 & 0.9435 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Below 0.9365 look for further downside with 0.9335 & 0.9315 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution. The pair is supported by a rising trend line.
Supports and resistances:
0.946
0.9435
0.9415
0.9404 Last
0.9365
0.9335
0.9315
USD/CAD Intraday: the downside prevails.
Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 1.0885 with targets @ 1.0835 & 1.081 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Above 1.0885 look for further upside with 1.0905 & 1.092 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: The break below 1.0885 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 1.0835.
Supports and resistances:
1.092
1.0905
1.0885
1.0862 Last
1.0835
1.081
1.079
US Daily Index
S&P500 (CME)
Long positions above 1934 with targets @ 1955 & 1959 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1934 look for further downside with 1924 & 1914 as targets.
Dow Jones (CBT)
Long positions above 16790 with targets @ 16960 & 17000 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 16790 look for further downside with 16735 & 16660 as targets.
Nasdaq 100 (CME)
Long positions above 3775 with targets @ 3806 & 3820 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 3775 look for further downside with 3756 & 3734 as targets.
Russell 2000 (ICE)
Long positions above 1158 with targets @ 1174 & 1181 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1158 look for further downside with 1143 & 1129 as targets.
