The pick of the day is AUD/USD as Mr. Aussie dances against Ms. USA. Remember how we said employment is getting better in Australia last week? Well, the April employment change was revised down from the initially reported 14,200 increase to just 10,300. So turns out the lack of consumer confidence had a good reason behind it after all, other than just the announcement of government budget cuts.
On the steady news, jobless rate managed to hold steady at 5.8% instead of rising to the estimated 5.9% reading. In the weak news, there could be more weakness in the Aussie labor market. Many geeky analysts believe that with all this, the RBA will not be hiking interest rates anytime soon. What do you think?
Back on the forex dance floor, besides the down moves we saw today thanks to the Aussie gossip we just talked about, the pair danced all the way up above the Ichimoku cloud to reach our target at 0.9420 as predicted last week. Feels good to earn pips, huh?
The pair also successfully broke above a falling wedge and the RSI has broken above a declining trend line and remains well directed, so we could see more gains towards a horizontal resistance at 0.9540 at first and 0.9760 in extension. Now if the pair decides to go nuts and break below the 23% Fibo level, that could call for further drops towards the 38% Fibo level at 0.9144 and 0.9100 in extension.
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Intraday Forex Technical Levels
EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 1.352 with targets @ 1.358 & 1.3615 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Below 1.352 look for further downside with 1.35 & 1.347 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair is pulling back on its support.
Supports and resistances:
1.367
1.3615
1.358
1.3535 Last
1.352
1.35
1.347
GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 1.6905 with targets @ 1.699 & 1.704 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Below 1.6905 look for further downside with 1.686 & 1.683 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair stands above its support and remains on the upside.
Supports and resistances:
1.71
1.704
1.699
1.6949 Last
1.6905
1.686
1.683
USD/JPY Intraday: rebound.
Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 101.75 with targets @ 102.2 & 102.4 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Below 101.75 look for further downside with 101.55 & 101.45 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair is rebounding and remains on the upside.
Supports and resistances:
102.6
102.4
102.2
102.035 Last
101.75
101.55
101.45
USD/CHF Intraday: under pressure.
Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 0.9015 with targets @ 0.8955 & 0.894 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Above 0.9015 look for further upside with 0.9035 & 0.906 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance.
Supports and resistances:
0.906
0.9035
0.9015
0.8999 Last
0.8955
0.894
0.892
NZD/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 0.862.
Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.862 with targets @ 0.871 & 0.8745 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Below 0.862 look for further downside with 0.8565 & 0.8525 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Supports and resistances:
0.878
0.8745
0.871
0.8653 Last
0.862
0.8565
0.8525
AUD/USD Intraday: supported by a rising trend line.
Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.936 with targets @ 0.9435 & 0.946 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Below 0.936 look for further downside with 0.9335 & 0.9315 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. The pair is expected to bounce off a rising trend line.
Supports and resistances:
0.948
0.946
0.9435
0.9383 Last
0.936
0.9335
0.9315
USD/CAD Intraday: key resistance at 1.087.
Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 1.087 with targets @ 1.0835 & 1.081 in extension.
If pair goes nuts: Above 1.087 look for further upside with 1.0905 & 1.092 as targets.
What’s up on the forex dance floor: As long as 1.087 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Supports and resistances:
1.092
1.0905
1.087
1.0859 Last
1.0835
1.081
1.079
Weekly US Index & Precious Metals Technical Levels
S&P500 (CME)
Long positions above 1803 with targets @ 1955 & 2035 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1803 look for further downside with 1731 & 1640 as targets.
Dow Jones (CBT)
Long positions above 15875 with targets @ 17100 & 17375 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 15875 look for further downside with 15275 & 14640 as targets.
Nasdaq 100 (CME)
Long positions above 3404 with targets @ 3810 & 3925 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 3404 look for further downside with 3253 & 3110 as targets.
Gold
– The downside breakout of the 1272 key support area has turned the outlook to bearish – the daily RSI has pushed below a bullish trend line
– Thus a new down leg is expected with targets set at 1235 which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the previous bullish run started in December 2013. The downside breakout of the 1235 support area would trigger a bearish acceleration to the next support set at 1180 (low of December 2013)
– Alternatively, above 1332, a recovery towards 1390 and 1434 would be expected.
Silver
Silver has struck against a key declining trend line drawn from the top of 2011
– the 50-day moving average is still declining and maintains downward momentum
– Further decline to 18.20 or even 17.20 is likely – Alternatively, the break above 20.60 would call for a new test of 22.17
