For Japanese watch below. 日本語バージョンはこちら。
The pick of the day is USD/JPY, who’s dancing move fell right in the path of my prediction and earned us some pips! Let’s take a look at the bigger picture first on the weekly dance floor which we have been eyeing for 8 months now, the pair finally seems to be completing wave 5 of the impulsive Elliot waves and might still have some room to move up.
On the daily dance floor my bullish position was automatically closed at 103.6 last night over the Asian session. If you still have an open bullish position, there is a chance that the pair moves up to the previous top at 105.45 before pulling back again because the RSI hasn’t yet reached the overbought zone. So be cautious about the market sentiment before exiting, and if you have already closed your trade, congratulations on your pips!
Overnight we saw Japan ride the US’ coat tails and add 1% to the value of the Nikkei. Other factors boosting the optimism levels include the Tankan survey showing that companies expect inflation of 1.5% over the next few years – a sign that Abenomics may be working. Also GPIF, Japan’s largest pension fund announced that it will begin investing in funds in high yielding Japanese stocks to boost returns.
Q&A Friday is coming up so don’t forget submit your questions on our community. A quick word with our Japanese followers, 来月から日本語で為替市場レポートをお伝えしますから、是非日本語バージョンも見てください！！
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More on Fundamentals
Today’s calendar is fairly light this morning with UK construction data the only real highlight, having already seen UK house price data from Nationwide post weaker than expected, but still showing gains. London now has an annualized price increase of more than 18% with house prices now 20% above their previous 2007 highs.
The US session includes employment numbers, new York ISM data and a couple of Fed speakers this evening. John Kerry is speaking with EU leaders at the moment about energy policies and possible diversification plans, so we may hear some news early on from this meeting, we’ll let you know.
Forex Technical Intraday Levels
EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Our preference: Long positions above 1.378 with targets @ 1.382 & 1.3845 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.378 look for further downside with 1.376 & 1.374 as targets.
Comment: The pair is pulling back on its support ahead of a rebound.
Supports and resistances:
1.3875
1.3845
1.382
1.3787 Last
1.378
1.376
1.374
GBP/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Our preference: Long positions above 1.6605 with targets @ 1.668 & 1.672 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.6605 look for further downside with 1.655 & 1.6505 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed. The pair is rebounding above its support.
Supports and resistances:
1.6745
1.672
1.668
1.6646 Last
1.6605
1.655
1.6505
USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails. |
Our preference: Long positions above 103.4 with targets @ 104.1 & 104.45 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 103.4 look for further downside with 102.95 & 102.65 as targets.
Comment: The pair stands above its support and remains on the upside.
Supports and resistances:
104.85
104.45
104.1
103.6875 Last
103.4
102.95
102.65
USD/CHF Intraday: under pressure.
Our preference: Short positions below 0.8855 with targets @ 0.881 & 0.8785 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.8855 look for further upside with 0.8875 & 0.89 as targets.
Comment: The pair is rebounding but stands below its resistance.
Supports and resistances:
0.89
0.8875
0.8855
0.8845 Last
0.881
0.8785
0.876
NZD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Our preference: Short positions below 0.861 with targets @ 0.8535 & 0.851 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.861 look for further upside with 0.8635 & 0.866 as targets.
Comment: The pair has broken below its support and remains under pressure.
Supports and resistances:
0.866
0.8635
0.861
0.8564 Last
0.8535
0.851
0.848
AUD/USD Intraday: rebound.
Our preference: Long positions above 0.922 with targets @ 0.9275 & 0.93 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.922 look for further downside with 0.918 & 0.915 as targets.
Comment: The pair is rebounding above its support.
Supports and resistances:
0.934
0.93
0.9275
0.9245 Last
0.922
0.918
0.915
USD/CAD Intraday: under pressure.
Our preference: Short positions below 1.1045 with targets @ 1.0995 & 1.0975 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.1045 look for further upside with 1.1075 & 1.1105 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1.1045 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
Supports and resistances:
1.1105
1.1075
1.1045
1.1011 Last
1.0995
1.0975
1.095
