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Will Mr. Aussie Break Up or Down?


Apr.30.2014

Kiana Danial JPG

The pick of the day is AUD/USD as Mr. Aussie and Ms. USA are trapped in a triangle on the daily dance floor. As we have learned on our education program, Triangles seem to work best when the pair breaks out somewhere between half and three-fourths of the distance between the beginning to the end of the triangle and it seems it’s just about the right time for the pair to make up their mind since it wasn't even able to break below the 23% Fibonacci level. The pair remains above the Ichimoku cloud with the RSI rising above the neutrality area so a break above the upper level of the triangle could open doors for more gains with 0.94219 as target.

AUDUSD technical analysis daily chart triangle fibonacci ichimoku RSI

If we zoom in to the 4-hour dance floor, we’ll notice that on a 4 hour basis the pair is actually dancing in a downward channel so we could confirm our daily triangle breakout with a 4-hour channel breakout. A break below 0.92176 would signal more drops towards a previous bottom at 0.90193.

AUDUSD 4 hour chart downward channel technical analysis

Apologies for being absent from the NYSE yesterday but I was out to talk trading with over 50 stay-at-home moms in the suburbs of New York. I'm very empowered and grateful for the amount of enthusiasm these ladies showed during my two-hour lecture, actively participating, asking questions and wanting to move forward.

A quick word with our Japanese followers, 来月から日本語で為替市場レポートをお伝えしますから、是非日本語バージョンも見てください!!

Long term traders. Don’t sweat the small losses and look at the big picture. Short term traders, invest responsibly. And all of you, enroll in Invest Diva’s program today and learn forex with 100s of awesome education videos.

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Intraday Forex Technical Levels

EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Our preference: Long positions above 1.3795 with targets @ 1.388 & 1.3905 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.3795 look for further downside with 1.3775 & 1.375 as targets.

Comment: The pair remains on the upside as the RSI is well directed.

Supports and resistances:
1.3935
1.3905
1.388
1.385 Last
1.3795
1.3775
1.375

GBP/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.679.

Our preference: Long positions above 1.679 with targets @ 1.6845 & 1.686 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.679 look for further downside with 1.6775 & 1.676 as targets.

Comment: The pair is rebounding above its support.

Supports and resistances:
1.6885
1.686
1.6845
1.6826 Last
1.679
1.6775
1.676

USD/JPY Intraday: under pressure.

Our preference: Short positions below 102.65 with targets @ 102.3 & 102.15 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 102.65 look for further upside with 102.75 & 102.9 as targets.

Comment: The pair is rebounding but stands below its resistance.

Supports and resistances:
102.9
102.75
102.65
102.515 Last
102.3
102.15
102.05

USD/CHF Intraday: under pressure.

Our preference: Short positions below 0.8845 with targets @ 0.8785 & 0.8765 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.8845 look for further upside with 0.886 & 0.887 as targets.

Comment: The pair has broken below its support and remains under pressure.

Supports and resistances:
0.887
0.886
0.8845
0.8808 Last
0.8785
0.8765
0.8745

AUD/USD Intraday: consolidation in place.

Our preference: Short positions below 0.9315 with targets @ 0.9245 & 0.9225 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.9315 look for further upside with 0.935 & 0.938 as targets.

Comment: The RSI has struck against a major resistance around 70% and is reversing down. The pair is drawing a consolidation in a slightly declining channel.

Supports and resistances:
0.938
0.935
0.9315
0.9268 Last
0.9245
0.9225
0.92

USD/CAD Intraday: key resistance at 1.1005.

Our preference: Short positions below 1.1005 with targets @ 1.094 & 1.0915 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.1005 look for further upside with 1.105 & 1.107 as targets.

Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.1005 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.094 remains high.

Supports and resistances:
1.107
1.105
1.1005
1.0959 Last
1.094
1.0915
1.087

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