Today’s Forex Guide

Swiss Franc Testing 50% Fibonacci


Jun.03.2015

8:20 AM (EST) Update

USD/CHF Daily

USD/CHF Daily: Testing  50% Fibonacci level below the Ichimoku cloud, with a bullish sentiment. 

Fundamentals:

The Swiss Franc Side: After the Jawboning on January 15, 2015, there is not much more to say about the Swiss economy and their jobs situation but that they're stable as usual. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 3.3%, the first time that the jobless rate reached this level since April 2011. But it’s still within the 3% range, that is to say that it’s still very stable and very, very low. And that’s good.

So what does it mean for the  Mr. Swiss Franc? Nothing much, really. Switzerland is more reliant on its industry than on consumer spending. The Swiss economy is also driven by foreign investments thanks to Switzerland’s status as a safe haven for investors. So unless the Swiss jobless rate suddenly goes up to 5% or falls to 1%, we’re unlikely to see any reaction from the market.

The US Dollar Side: The estimated number of new non-farm jobs created came out at 201K Wednesday morning higher than the 198K forecast. Although Ms. USA had a down day on Tuesday, we can already see a bullish sentiment in the market for the remaining of the week. However we still have the trade balance, ISM non-Manufacturing PMI to come out today, and tomorrow will be most critical to the fate of the US dollar with US unemployment claims data scheduled to be out at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical Analysis: The USD/CHF pair remains below the Ichimoku cloud and started to test below the 50% Fibonacci level which was our key pivot point. However Ms. USA is back with hard-core up moves and we could see the range to continue between 0.9515 and 0.9290. .

Forex Trading idea: Short term: range trade between 0.9290 and 0.9515. Long term: wait for confirmation above/ below the pivot points to identify a new trend.

Where to set your stops and limits on the Daily Chart:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
0.9080 0.9515 0.9785
0.8900 0.9290 1.0093

*Important Note: The support and resistance levels are not suitable for all traders and largely depend on your account size, margin and leverage. Book a private lesson to learn how to personalize your account based on our trading guide.

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