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Russia turns gas off | Forex Levels


Jun.17.2014

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Summer is usually a slow season for traders but yesterday all of Europe's equity markets closed in the red yesterday as Russia decided to pull the plug  on Ukraine's gas supplies. The decision to halt gas exports to Ukraine is a worrying one for Europe, as a lot of gas destined for the EU has to flow through pipes that are on Ukrainian soil, so could face some disruption. Ukraine says it has enough in gas reserves to last until December, so can tread water for the time being.

In the UK, David Miles of the Bank of England reaffirmed Mark Carney's comments that a rate rise is on the cards earlier than expected. We can now expect to see a change in the BoE voting pattern, which has been in favor of keeping interest rates low for a very long time, when we get to see the minutes of the last meeting, tomorrow.

One country that is far from being out of crisis is Argentina. The country failed to get the US supreme court to overrule verdicts that the country has to pay out to creditors that held on to their bonds when the country defaulted back in 2001. The payouts could amount to as much as $15bn and will need to be paid out this month, putting other bond holders at risk of default as the country runs desperately low on foreign echange reserves. The majority of the payout will go to a US hedge fund manager, Paul Singer, who bought the defaulted bonds from investors very cheaply and has held out for this day - so his return on investment is going to be huge, though his place in heaven is far from guaranteed.

Today we get see UK and US inflation and Germany's ZEW index. Overnight we heard from the Reserve Bank of Australia, who were more dovish than at previous meetings and said any move in the medium term would not be a rate hike (therefore it would be a rate cut), which has meant the Aussie Dollar has been the biggest loser in the FX markets overnight, with everything else remaining fairly static ahead of the Fed and tomorrow's BoE minutes.

 

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Intraday Forex Technical Levels

EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 1.3545 with targets @ 1.3585 & 1.36 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 1.3545 look for further downside with 1.3525 & 1.351 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair is rebounding above its support as the RSI is turning up.

Supports and resistances:
1.3615
1.36
1.3585
1.3565 Last
1.3545
1.3525
1.351

GBP/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 1.6935 with targets @ 1.701 & 1.704 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 1.6935 look for further downside with 1.6905 & 1.686 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair is rebounding above its support.

Supports and resistances:
1.71
1.704
1.701
1.6977 Last
1.6935
1.6905
1.686

USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 101.75 with targets @ 102.2 & 102.4 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 101.75 look for further downside with 101.55 & 101.45 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair is rebounding above its support as the RSI is well directed.

Supports and resistances:
102.65
102.4
102.2
101.995 Last
101.75
101.55
101.45

スライド1

USD/CHF Intraday: under pressure.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 0.899 with targets @ 0.8955 & 0.894 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 0.899 look for further upside with 0.9015 & 0.9035 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: The pair has struck against its resistance.

Supports and resistances:
0.9035
0.9015
0.899
0.8982 Last
0.8955
0.894
0.8915

NZD/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 0.862.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.862 with targets @ 0.871 & 0.8745 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 0.862 look for further downside with 0.8565 & 0.8535 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Supports and resistances:
0.878
0.8745
0.871
0.8669 Last
0.862
0.8565
0.8535

AUD/USD Intraday: capped by a negative trend line.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 0.939 with targets @ 0.9335 & 0.9315 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 0.939 look for further upside with 0.9415 & 0.9435 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: As long as 0.939 is resistance, likely decline to 0.9335. The pair stands below its resistance and remains under pressure.

Supports and resistances:
0.9435
0.9415
0.939
0.9363 Last
0.9335
0.9315
0.93

USD/CAD Intraday: consolidation in place.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 1.088 with targets @ 1.0835 & 1.081 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 1.088 look for further upside with 1.0905 & 1.092 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
1.092
1.0905
1.088
1.0861 Last
1.0835
1.081
1.079

スライド3

US Daily Index

S&P500 (CME) 

Short positions below 1940 with targets @ 1912 & 1906 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1940 look for further upside with 1948 & 1951 as targets.

Dow Jones (CBT)

Short positions below 16805 with targets @ 16585 & 16480 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 16805 look for further upside with 16880 & 16925 as targets.

Nasdaq 100 (CME)

Short positions below 3800 with targets @ 3728 & 3701 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 3800 look for further upside with 3814 & 3839 as targets.

Russell 2000 (ICE)

Short positions below 1168 with targets @ 1147 & 1136 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1168 look for further upside with 1175 & 1192 as targets.

Long term traders. Don’t sweat the small losses and look at the big picture. Short term traders, invest responsibly. And wait, are we hooked up on the social media? To get the most recent intraday updates, don’t forget to follow Invest Diva on Twitter and Facebook.

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