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One Bank Spooks Entire Global Market


Jul.11.2014

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We haven't seen this for a while... European stocks fell heavily yesterday as reports that a Portuguese bank had missed some debt repayments spread fear through the market.

The beneficiaries were also the usual suspects. German government debt rallied, with yields falling to their lowest in 18 months. The Yen and the Swiss Franc also saw plenty of interest as safe havens, as did gold, which has been on a bit of a run lately and a number of analysts have highlighted $1,420 per ounce as the next stop on the chart for the metal.

Ironically for Mario Draghi, this was the news that brought some weakness to the Euro... Probably not the way that he was hoping to get it! that said, this is likely to be a very temporary rout as governments will want to ensure that their cheap funding options aren't further jeopardized by the behavior of their banks.

While President Obama is concerned about the Middle East with the Israeli/ Palestinian invasions, he's also got a bit of a problem at home. Republican speaker John Boehner is suing the president for abuse of power. Apparently, back in 2010 the president went and changed a healthcare law without taking a Congressional vote So far Mr Obama doesn't seem to be bothered, telling supporters in Texas "sue me, impeach me, for what, doing my job?".

Another dilemma for the president came from Angela Merkel, who yesterday expelled the head of US intelligence from Germany, after two spying incidents took place in as many days. This follows on from last year's revelation that the NSA were listening to her phone calls. Ms Merkel said that spying on allies is "the ultimate waste of energy"

In Asia, markets have been cautious, following on from European worries. in Australia there's an article in the Melbourne Review worth reading entitled 'is Australia Due for a Recession?' which suggests that improvements in international trading conditions could be undermined by domestic policies and high house prices.

Today we're looking at futures markets in the red and a data sheet that isn't likely to favour Europe. That said, traders do love a bargain and most things are a couple of percent cheaper today than they were yesterday, so who knows!
Long term traders. Don’t sweat the small losses and look at the big picture. Short term traders,

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Intraday Forex Technical Levels

EUR/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 1.3625 with targets @ 1.3575 & 1.3555 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 1.3625 look for further upside with 1.365 & 1.3675 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: As long as 1.3625 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Supports and resistances:
1.3675
1.365
1.3625
1.3608 Last
1.3575
1.3555
1.3535

スライド1

GBP/USD Intraday: caution.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 1.71 with targets @ 1.7165 & 1.718 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 1.71 look for further downside with 1.7055 & 1.7005 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution. The pair is trading in a slightly ascending channel.

Supports and resistances:
1.72
1.718
1.7165
1.7129 Last
1.71
1.7055
1.7005

USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 101.55 with targets @ 101.05 & 100.8 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 101.55 look for further upside with 101.8 & 102 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: As long as the resistance at 101.55 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 101.05 remains high.

Supports and resistances:
102
101.8
101.55
101.3095 Last
101.05
100.8
100.3

スライド3

USD/CHF Intraday: key resistance at 0.894.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 0.894 with targets @ 0.89 & 0.888 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 0.894 look for further upside with 0.896 & 0.8975 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: As long as 0.894 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Supports and resistances:
0.8975
0.896
0.894
0.8924 Last
0.89
0.888
0.886

NZD/USD Intraday: supported by a rising trend line.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.8795 with targets @ 0.8835 & 0.886 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 0.8795 look for further downside with 0.877 & 0.8735 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Supports and resistances:
0.89
0.886
0.8835
0.8824 Last
0.8795
0.877
0.8735

AUD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.9415.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 0.9415 with targets @ 0.9355 & 0.9325 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 0.9415 look for further upside with 0.9455 & 0.9485 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Supports and resistances:
0.9485
0.9455
0.9415
0.94 Last
0.9355
0.9325
0.929

USD/CAD Intraday: break of a short term rising trendline support.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 1.0675 with targets @ 1.0615 & 1.058 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 1.0675 look for further upside with 1.0695 & 1.0725 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: Technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

Supports and resistances:
1.0725
1.0695
1.0675
1.0637 Last
1.0615
1.058
1.0555

 US Index Levels

S&P500

Short positions below 1968 with targets @ 1937 & 1923 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1968 look for further upside with 1978 & 1986 as targets.

Dow Jones

Short positions below 16930 with targets @ 16620 & 16525 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 16930 look for further upside with 16995 & 17090 as targets.

Nasdaq 100

Short positions below 3895 with targets @ 3808 & 3783 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 3895 look for further upside with 3919 & 3946 as targets.

Russell 2000

Short positions below 1183 with targets @ 1132 & 1112 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1183 look for further upside with 1194 & 1211 as targets.

 

 

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