Today’s Forex Guide

Mr. Euro was kinda crushed yesterday


Jul.23.2014

Overnight EU foreign ministers have failed to agree tougher new sanctions against Russia apparently disagreeing over an arms embargo led to no firm conclusion. There are several large weapons contracts with Eurozone states supplying Russia with hardware including France and Germany.

The euro had a BIG down moves during yesterday’s trading, making significant losses against all but the Swiss Franc, which turned out good for us because we had a short position on Mr. Euro against Ms. USA. But oddly enough the data releases were almost non-existent. The much maligned euro seems to have fallen casualty to the divergence in central bank policy.

euro_crush

Mr. Aussie led the charge early morning and danced up his highest levels vs Euro in almost nine months. The Australian Central Bank, are content with current monetary policy and are not likely to adjust anytime soon.

The blows continued with the release of US CPI, unchanged, as the argument for the FED to start tightening policy up grows by the day. The Eurozone on the other hand languishing amid a plethora of unprecedented stimulants is feeling the pain. “We’ve had a unique reaction in euro-dollar…that’s not a data response, that is a market that’s looking to sell euro.” The sustained positive CPI numbers holding at 2.1%, not only helped euro dollar push the cross to 8 month highs with a 0.4% gain on the day.

Global stock market did not do too badly either, as risk seems to have been taken off the table slightly lifting the S&P 500 to a record high, certainly helped by signs of cooperation from Ukraine’s pro-Russian separatists over the downing of the Malaysian Airlines jetliner. With the handing over of the MH17 Asian markets also rallied 0.3%, with the FTSE posting gains of nearly a percent. The risks posed in Gaza and Ukraine have seemed to wash away as equity markets continue to flourish. Safe haven assets had a bit of a choppy day off the back of this Gold and Silver in particular had an extremely hairy ride.

Today's excitement comes predominantly from the UK. First we see the BoE Minutes along with the eagerly anticipated vote as markets await any divergence from 9-0. This is followed by Mr Carney himself speaking in Glasgow today. The Eurozone will be posting consumer confidence figures today. Furthermore we wait to see what if any developments happen on Russian sanctions.

 

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Intraday Forex Technical Levels

EUR/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 1.35 with targets @ 1.3435 & 1.34 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 1.35 look for further upside with 1.353 & 1.355 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: As long as the resistance at 1.35 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3435 remains high.

Supports and resistances:
1.355
1.353
1.35
1.3469 Last
1.3435
1.34
1.338

GBP/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 1.7085 with targets @ 1.6995 & 1.696 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 1.7085 look for further upside with 1.7115 & 1.714 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Supports and resistances:
1.714
1.7115
1.7085
1.7037 Last
1.6995
1.696
1.692

GBP-USD-30-minute-forex-chart

USD/JPY Intraday: supported by a rising trend line.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 101.3 with targets @ 101.6 & 101.8 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 101.3 look for further downside with 101.05 & 100.85 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: The RSI lacks downward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
102
101.8
101.6
101.406 Last
101.3
101.05
100.85

USD-JPY-30-minute-forex-chart

USD/CHF Intraday: further advance.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.9 with targets @ 0.904 & 0.9075 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 0.9 look for further downside with 0.8965 & 0.8935 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: The break above 0.9 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 0.904.

Supports and resistances:
0.91
0.9075
0.904
0.9022 Last
0.9
0.8965
0.8935

NZD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.872.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 0.872 with targets @ 0.8645 & 0.862 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 0.872 look for further upside with 0.8745 & 0.8785 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Supports and resistances:
0.8785
0.8745
0.872
0.8684 Last
0.8645
0.862
0.86

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.938 with targets @ 0.9455 & 0.9485 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 0.938 look for further downside with 0.9355 & 0.9325 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: The RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.

Supports and resistances:
0.9505
0.9485
0.9455
0.9448 Last
0.938
0.9355
0.9325

USD/CAD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 1.0695 with targets @ 1.0795 & 1.0825 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 1.0695 look for further downside with 1.0655 & 1.0625 as targets.

What’s up on the forex dance floor: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Supports and resistances:
1.0855
1.0825
1.0795
1.0726 Last
1.0695
1.0655
1.0625

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