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Apr.01.2014

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The pick of the day is EUR/USD who danced to a fresh year high in March, then pulled back a bit just to find support at the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.37150. The daily RSI is reaching neutrality area and the pair is trying to break through the hard-core resistance level of 2013 of 1.38 as we speak. A break above this level could open doors for more gains to 1.38449 and even back to this year’s high at 1.39336. Alternatively a break below the 61% Fibonacci level at 1.36369 will change our outlook to bearish with the fist alternative target at 1.34746 and the second one at 1.33543.

EURUSD Technical analysis fibonacci resistance level bullish RSI

Today's data sheet has already had mixed PMI reports from China, with the official reading showing improvements and the HSBC reading showing a fall in manufacturing output. Australia have left their interest rate on hold and also said that their currency is 'uncomfortably high', which actually led to a bit of a spike in the Aussie.

Later on we get a host of PMI numbers from Europe, the UK, the US and Canada, all of which have the potential to be market movers.

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Fundamentals Overview

The final trading day of March slipped by quietly yesterday. Mr. UK AKA Sterling found a small amount of the strength that it usually does at the end of a month, but there wasn't too much need to be glued to the screens.

European inflation numbers fell further than economists had predicted. Annualized inflation across the eurozone sits at just 0.5% now, having seen a 0.2% drop from last month, which analysts weren't expecting. We don't entirely follow the logic of the market though, which sold off pretty heavily on the idea that this would increase the likelihood of action on Thursday from the ECB.

In the UK George Osborne said yesterday that he was aiming for "full employment" in the UK, with Britain leading every other nation with the highest percentage of the labor force in work. The Chancellor may also have lost a few voters yesterday as the National Audit Office said the pricing of Royal Mail shares going  into their IPO last year was too cautious and didn't yield best value for the taxpayer.

In the US session it was Janet Yellen that gave markets a comfort blanket to cling to. Ms Yellen said that the labor market was still weak and that extraordinary monetary policy was "still needed and will be for some time to come". Markets liked the idea of this, and bought into equity markets in a hope that this was a hint that winding down QE might not be an entirely linear process.

Over in Asia, markets have been a little less concerned over Chinese debt defaults and have turned their focus  to North Korea, who have announced plans to roll out a new crypto currency. The Kim-coin will be accepted at all major retailers in the country, as well as state approved on-line retailers. The rogue state has said that its plans for the Kim-coin are entirely legitimate as their glorious leader was actually the first person to conceive of the idea of money, as well as inventing the Internet. As such he has divine rights to oversee all transactions.

In Japan the long planned sales tax hike has been implemented. The first of three planned hikes in the consumption tax has been greeted with mixed response, but overall the market has only fallen very slightly and it is far too early to tell what impact this will have on the mentality of consumers.

Forex Technical Intraday Levels

EUR/USD Intraday: intraday support around 1.376

Our preference: Long positions above 1.376 with targets @ 1.381 & 1.3845 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.376 look for further downside with 1.374 & 1.372 as targets.

Comment: The pair stands above its support and remains on the upside.

Supports and resistances:
1.3875
1.3845
1.381
1.3787 Last
1.376
1.374
1.372

GBP/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish

Our preference: Long positions above 1.6605 with targets @ 1.668 & 1.672 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.6605 look for further downside with 1.655 & 1.6505 as targets.

Comment: The pair is facing a pull back ahead of further advance.

Supports and resistances:
1.674
1.672
1.668
1.664 Last
1.6605
1.655
1.6505

USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails

Our preference: Long positions above 102.95 with targets @ 103.45 & 103.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 102.95 look for further downside with 102.65 & 102.4 as targets.

Comment: The pair stands above its new support and remains on the upside.

Supports and resistances:
104.1
103.75
103.45
103.345 Last
102.95
102.65
102.4

USD/CHF Intraday: under pressure

Our preference: Short positions below 0.8855 with targets @ 0.881 & 0.8785 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.8855 look for further upside with 0.8875 & 0.89 as targets.

Comment: The pair has struck against its resistance and remains under pressure.

Supports and resistances:
0.89
0.8875
0.8855
0.8834 Last
0.881
0.8785
0.876

NZD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails

Our preference: Long positions above 0.865 with targets @ 0.87 & 0.872 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.865 look for further downside with 0.862 & 0.8585 as targets.

Comment: The pair is pulling back on its support ahead of a rebound.

Supports and resistances:
0.875
0.872
0.87
0.8671 Last
0.865
0.862
0.8585

AUD/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 0.922

Our preference: Long @ 0.923 with targets @ 0.9275 & 0.93 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.922 look for further downside with 0.918 & 0.915 as targets.

Comment: The pair is facing a pull back on its support ahead of a rebound.

Supports and resistances:
0.934
0.93
0.9275
0.9233 Last
0.922
0.918
0.915

USD/CAD Intraday: key resistance at 1.1075

Our preference: Short positions below 1.1075 with targets @ 1.102 & 1.0995 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.1075 look for further upside with 1.1105 & 1.1145 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 1.1075 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.102 remains high.

Supports and resistances:
1.1145
1.1105
1.1075
1.1053 Last
1.102
1.0995
1.0975

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