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From the land of Rose Byrne


Jun.06.2014

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The pick of the day is from the land of Ex-Xman actress Rose Byrne: Australia!

Mr. Aussie finally showed some up moves on the forex dance floor breaking above the Ichimoku cloud, after a period of crabby side-way moves. Here is how the forex puppet masters are playing Mr. Aussie:

Up-move Factors:

1-      The latest GDP release was good news for Mr. Aussie for sure. The Q1 report showed a 1.1% expansion versus the estimated 0.9% growth figure. The GDP owes its growth to components such as RBA monetary policy, growing exports and house investments.

2-      Employment is getting better in Australia and their economy added almost twice more jobs than the estimated in April, and it upgraded again in May.

3-      Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is being ultra-cautious with its policy making and kept interest rates unchanged at 2.50% on Tuesday.

 

Down-move Factors

1-      Australians aren’t still that confident in their economy despite the good readings in labor market and GDP, as consumer spending hasn’t grown much in the past couple of months

2-      Australian government needs to cut in their spending, especially health care, welfare, higher education, and pensions, so that they can turn the growing budget deficit into a surplus within the next ten years.

3-      There could be a slowdown in China’s economy. “Who cares?” you ask? Well, for one China is the world’s second largest economy and is Australia’s number one trade buddy. So no only the global economy could get hurt by China, but Mr. Aussie could get crushed because China’s slowdown could take a huge toll on Australia’s commodity exports.

Back on the dance floor, where Mr. Aussie is dancing with Ms. USA: After challenging both the 23% Fibonacci level and the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud for a good two weeks, the pair decided to give up and move up. Today the pair confirmed the break above the Ichimoku cloud and the RSI is above the neutrality area. We could see more gains towards the recent high of 0.9420 and 0.97 in extension. Now if the pair decides to go nuts and break below the 23% Fibo level, that could call for further drops towards the 38% Fibo level at 0.9144 and 0.9100 in extension.

AUDUSD technical analysis ichimoku Fibonacci RSI daily candlestick chart

 

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Intraday Forex Technical Levels

EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 1.362 with targets @ 1.367 & 1.369 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 1.362 look for further downside with 1.3585 & 1.3535 as targets.

What’s up on the dance floor: The RSI lacks downward momentum. The pair is rebounding above its support as the RSI is turning up.

Supports and resistances:
1.3735
1.369
1.367
1.3644 Last
1.362
1.3585
1.3535

GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 1.677 with targets @ 1.6825 & 1.685 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 1.677 look for further downside with 1.673 & 1.67 as targets.

What’s up on the dance floor: The pair remains on the upside and is challenging its resistance.

スライド1

Supports and resistances:
1.688
1.685
1.6825
1.6815 Last
1.677
1.673
1.67

USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 102.55 with targets @ 102.15 & 102 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 102.55 look for further upside with 102.8 & 103.1 as targets.

What’s up on the dance floor: The pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance.

スライド3

Supports and resistances:

103.1
102.8
102.55
102.377 Last
102.15
102
101.85

USD/CHF Intraday: under pressure.

Invest Diva likes: Short positions below 0.8945 with targets @ 0.8905 & 0.8875 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Above 0.8945 look for further upside with 0.898 & 0.8995 as targets.

What’s up on the dance floor: The pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance.

Supports and resistances:
0.8995
0.898
0.8945
0.8927 Last
0.8905
0.8875
0.8845

NZD/USD Intraday: further advance.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.8475 with targets @ 0.855 & 0.8575 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 0.8475 look for further downside with 0.8445 & 0.84 as targets.

What’s up on the dance floor: The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Supports and resistances:
0.8605
0.8575
0.855
0.8524 Last
0.8475
0.8445
0.84

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Invest Diva likes: Long positions above 0.928 with targets @ 0.937 & 0.939 in extension.

If pair goes nuts: Below 0.928 look for further downside with 0.9255 & 0.923 as targets.

What’s up on the dance floor: The RSI is supported by a rising trend line. The pair validated an ascending Triangle pattern calling for a further advance.

Supports and resistances:
0.9435
0.939
0.937
0.9346 Last
0.928
0.9255
0.923

US Index Levels

 

S&P500 (CME)

Long positions above 1923 with targets @ 1948 & 1955 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1923 look for further downside with 1914 & 1904 as targets.

Dow Jones (CBT)

Long positions above 16735 with targets @ 16870 & 16930 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 16735 look for further downside with 16660 & 16600 as targets.

Nasdaq 100 (CME)

Long positions above 3734 with targets @ 3815 & 3838 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 3734 look for further downside with 3706 & 3688 as targets.

Russell 2000 (ICE)

Long positions above 1128 with targets @ 1157 & 1171 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1128 look for further downside with 1116 & 1109 as targets.

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