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EURUSD Confirms Below Ichimoku and Upward Channel


Oct.11.2016

EURUSD Confirms Below Ichimoku

After the US presidential debate on Sunday the USD gained momentum on widening Clinton lead. As a result EURUSD confirms below Ichimoku cloud along with NZDUSD. Is USD back in the bull's yard? Let's take an IDDA approach to find out.

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EURUSD Confirms Below Ichimoku - Kiana Danial with Orbex EURUSD Confirms Below Ichimoku - Kiana Danial with Orbex

EURUSD Confirms Below Ichimoku | Fundmanetnal Analysis

US Economy

The US dollar had an impressive jump on Monday after the US presidential debate. Historically, the USD performs better under the Democratic party, however this year there is more at stake as the Republican part nominee's economic policies pose tremendous threat to the US employment, GDP and trade. While the Republican nominee has created a scare tactics around the US to claim his position, historical charts show that the US is indeed doing pretty well. The key here is that American economy is changing from what it used to be.

For example, while manufacturing employment is diminishing, more and more people provide services.

employment

 

With this and the sensitivity of the markets to pre-election polling, expect more volatility in the USD until November 8th, the election day in the US.

A Hillary win could also increase the possibility of a rate hike in December, which could extend the US dollar strength.

 

EU Side

Keep in mind the the Euro is also correlated to the British Pound. With Brexit actions getting real and the GBP plummeting, we could expect Mr. Euro to follow this path as well.

 

EURUSD Confirms Below Ichimoku - Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has been ranging between 1.15 and 1.06 for almost two years. And our Invest Divas have been taking advantage of long-term range trading between the two levels. As EURUSD confirms below Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart, and breaks below the pivot of 1.1150 we could expect a new bearish wave in the coming months.

 

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The next pivot level is set at 1.1025 while bearish targets are at 61% and 76% Fibonacci levels at 1.09 and 1.0750. The flat Ichimoku is an indication of further range trade in a longer time frame. Resistance is set at 1.13 and 1.15 in extension.  Get my book to learn more about technical analysis.

EURUSD Confirms Below Ichimoku - Technical Analysis EURUSD Confirms Below Ichimoku - Technical Analysis

More on Economic Calendar

Wednesday

At the end of the Asian session today we have Japan’s Machine Tool Orders released at 6 AM GMT and during the London session, ZEW Survey (Expectations) (OCT) will be out at 9 AM. Later during the New York session the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary will be released at 2 PM and could create some volatility in the USD crosses.

The main market moving event of the session will be FOMC meeting minutes as the U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from Sept. 20-21 Meeting at 6 PM GMT.

EURUSD Confirms Below Ichimoku - Trading Strategy

With the new bearish sentiment, a bearish scenario is the winner for long term traders. However keep in mind that we could see a short-term correction as part of normal market cycle before we reach our bearish targets. As always, patience is a profitable virtue.

 

At this point, only a break back above the Ichimoku cloud would change our outlook back to bullish. Well, that, and a Trump presidency.

 

Here are Invest Diva's calculations for important EURUSD/  approximate levels to keep an eye on:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
1.06 1.1150 1.13
1.09 1.1025 1.15

 

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 xoxo

Kiana 喜愛成
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