Today’s Forex Guide

Euro Down as IMF Leaves Greece – EUR/USD Forex Analysis


Jun.11.2015

Euro Down - Daily Chart Euro Down - Daily Chart Technical Analysis

11:10 AM (EST) Update: Euro Down as IMF Leaves Greece - EUR/USD Forex Analysis

EUR/USD Daily: Down below Pivot and 23% Fibonacci level of 1.129 on Greece News

Euro Down: Economic Perspective

Euro side:

The International Monetary Fund just stopped bailout talks with Greece after a failure to make progress in negotiations, the IMF’s top spokesman said Thursday.

"There are major differences between us in most key areas," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters. "There has been no progress in narrowing these differences recently, and thus we are well away from an agreement."

 

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Market participants were quick to sell off Mr. Euro on the news which came out shortly after New York Market Open.

Yesterday the ECB increased the amount of money the Greek central bank could lend to commercial banks yet again. The increase was actually the largest since February as Greeks continue to withdraw their money from banks, preparing for the worst.

US Side:

US monthly retail sales came in at 1.2% better than the 1.1% expected and core retail sales ticked up to 1.0% comparing to last month's 0.1% beating expectations of 0.7%. The US dollar strength on the news was also a reason for the EUR/USD drop on the forex dance floor.

Euro Down: Technical analysis

Mr. Euro dancing against Ms. USA (the EUR/USD pair) remains inside a triangle chart pattern while above the Ichimoku cloud. It has been testing the 23% Fibonacci level without being able to break above or below it. The RSI is heading down towards the neutrality area.

Trading Idea

Range trading inside the triangle chart pattern could be a short-term strategy. However for a longer term position, wait for a confirmation. . If the pair opens above the pivot level and the upper band of the triangle, on the next candlestick, that could be your indication for a bullish position towards 1.1527 and 1.1808 in extension.

 

Alternative Scenario:Below 1.08 look for further drops towards 1.0470 and parity.

Where I'm setting my stops and limits:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
1.0470 1.1290 1.1527
1.01 1.09 1.18

*Important Note: The support and resistance levels are not suitable for all traders and largely depend on your account size, margin and leverage. Book a private lesson to learn how to personalize your account based on our trading guide.

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