Today’s Forex Guide

Dollar & Aussie up before hot economic data


Oct.08.2014

Quite a quite day today after the two down days for Ms. USA. Is she merely catching her breath to shoot back up against her major counterparts?

Fed minutes and Aussie jobs report are up today though and investors' mouths are watering for some pips.

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is scheduled to release  a  detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates on Wednesday at 2 PM New York time.

Dollar bulls are already prepping so this morning we woke up to a Ms. USA with her head slightly up on the forex dance floor.

With the Fed due to wind down its $4 trillion bond-buying programme this month, and the International Monetary Fund having cut its global economic growth forecasts for the third time this year, a mood of risk aversion probably permeated investors.

Later in the day and at the beginning of Asian session we will here from the Aussies and the jobs situation with two main parts:

1- Employment change

2- Jobless rate

jpg hot economic data actual forecast investor

As the latest RBA statement noted, labor market trends have been volatile lately since Australia has seen a fair share of positive and negative readings in the past few months.

Australia has printed three months’ worth of better than expected employment change figures since February then saw a sudden 5.1K drop in hiring for May, followed by another stronger than expected reading in June. Employment fell by 4.1K in July then rebounded by an impressive 121K in August.

The jobless rate has held steady at 5.8% from March to May then jumped to 6.4% in July, before sliding down to 6.1% in August. Revisions to past data have also been partly responsible for these huge swings in the jobless rate.

What is expected this time?

For the month of September, another decline in hiring is expected, with the employment change report likely to show a -29.6K reading. This might be enough to push the jobless rate up from 6.1% to 6.2% for the month.

How might Mr. Aussie react?

Worse than expected reading could push Mr. Aussie even lower against his major dancing partners on the forex dance floor. He generally reacts strongly to the headline figures anyways.

AUD/USD could jump up on a stronger than expected data.

 

 

Intraday Forex Technical Levels


audusd technical analysis 4 hour chart

AUD/USD 4-hour: Teasing the upper band of Ichimoku

Invest Diva Likes: Long positions above key support at 0.8670 with targets at 0.8894 and 0.8073 in extension

If Pair Goes Nuts: Below 0.8670 look for more downside with 0.8600 as first alternative target

What's up on the Forex Dance Floor: The pair failed to break below a key psychological level at 0.8679 and currently inside the Ichimoku cloud. The MACD is above the center line signaling more possible gains

Supports and Resistances

0.8073

0.8894

0.8670 Pivot point

0.8600


EUR/USD 4-hour Forex Dance Floor
EUR/USD 4-hour: Consolidating.

Invest Diva Likes: Short positions below 1.2666 with 1.2600 and 1.2509 as targets

If Pair Goes Nuts: Above 1.2666 look for more up moves towards 1.2763 and 1.2844 in extension.

What's up on the Forex Dance Floor: The pair has entered the Ichimoku's cloud and teasing the resistance level at 1.2666.

Supports and Resistances
1.2844

1.2763

1.2666 Pivot Point

1.2600

1.2509


GBP/USD 4-hour Forex Dance Floor
GBP/USD 4-hour: Consolidating.

Invest Diva Likes: Short positions below 1.6084 with targets at 1.5959 and 1.5866 in extension.

If Pair Goes Nuts: Above 1.6084 look for further upside towards 1.6162 and 1.6224.

What's up on the Forex Dance Floor: The pair is now consolidating after pulling back from the previous bottom around the level at 1.5959 below the Ichimoku's cloud. The RSI is moving flat at the neutrality area.

Supports and Resistances
1.6224

1.6162

1.6084 Pivot Point

1.5959

1.5866


USD/JPY 4-hour Forex Dance Floor
USD/JPY 4-hour: Consolidating.

Invest Diva Likes: Short positions below 108 with target at 106.71 and 105.67 in extension.

If Pair Goes Nuts: Above 108 look for further upside towards 109.17 and 110.08.

What's up on the Forex Dance Floor: The pair is consolidating at the neckline of possible Double Top pattern with the RSI below the neutrality area. A break below the neckline at 108 would confirm our bearish outlook.

Supports and Resistances
110.08

109.17

108 Pivot Point

106.71

105.67


USD/CAD 4-hour Forex Dance Floor
USD/CAD 4-hour: Consolidating.

Invest Diva Likes: Long positions above 1.1158 with targets at 1.1256 and 1.2770 in extension.

If Pair Goes Nuts: Below 1.158 look for further downside towards 1.1097 and 1.1048.

What's up on the Forex Dance Floor: The pair is on an overall uptrend but is now consolidating at the upper boundary of the Ichimoku's cloud with the RSI at the neutrality area.

Supports and Resistances
1.2770

1.1256

1.1158 Pivot Point

1.1097

1.1048

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