Today’s Forex Guide

The one with the jaw-dropping drop


Jan.15.2015

Cha-ching! For Euro bears... Oh yes baby. Mr. Euro got low enough to reach our bearish target again, clearing out our 5th bearish EUR/USD trade with profit. Aren’t you happy that you’ve been following Invest Diva’s signals?

And even more jaw-dropping than that is the Swiss franc. In my entire time trading forex, I ‘ve never seen such a poor dance move, like ever. The USD/CHF pair all of the sudden fell off the cliff, all the way back to where it was March 2014… Clearing all the progress it had made over the months in mere 3 hours.

The jaw dropping drop was deeper than the trader's jaws (as you can see in the picture below.) This is despite the fact the Ms. USA is getting stronger versus the other currencies.

the jaw dropping drop on the usdchf daily chart forex dance floor

You see, Switzerland's central bank scrapped its three-year-old cap against the euro, sending a shockwave through currency markets. The means the Swiss Franc all of a sudden got extremely powerful, and therefor in the USD/CHF chart we see the massive drop.

(If you don’t understand why USD/CHF plummeted while Swiss Franc itself got stronger, that only means you need to go back to the Invest Diva education course)

You may be asking if I made money on the pair. The answer is a big’ol NO. Although the ones who were anticipating this dropped probably made a huge amount of money overnight. And they are no one but the ones who knew about the SNB plans. So as responsible traders who have limited access to insider political news, we need to get back to our conventional methods of market analysis and make money one-step at a time… instead of hoping for an overnight wealth. It’s healthier and you probably won’t get killed by the government along the way either J

On other “less important” news, Mr. Aussie had a good day today! To our surprise, Australia added 37.4K jobs versus the estimated 5.3K, and the jobless rate improved to 6.1%. However many analysis still aren’t impressed and think that the RBA will reduce their benchmark rate from 2.50% to 2% by the middle of the year.

In Europe, the European Court of Justice took two years to come to the verdict, announced yesterday, that sovereign bond purchases by the ECB might be legal.

The 'verdict' gave markets little in the way of direction in which to trade the euro, with short positions already at record levels on the currency, nobody really wanted to add anything to the pot, without any gauge as to what size and scope the ECB would take. The news that there 'might' be some QE wasn't enough to save stock markets from having a bad day yesterday.

Coming up today in the New York session is the speech by Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann which could create further volatility in Mr. Euro’s dance moves.

 

Intraday Forex Technical Levels


EUR/USD 4-hour Forex Dance Floor
EUR/USD 4-hour: Dropping.

Invest Diva positioning: Short positions below 1.1663 with targets at 1.1536 and 1.1384 in extension.

Technical reasons why: The pair reached our bearish target at 1.1663 below the Ichimoku's cloud. The RSI is below the neutrality area.

Alternative Scenario: Above 1.1663 look for further upside towards 1.1782 and 1.1875.

Where I'm setting my stops and limits:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
1.1536 1.1663 1.1782
1.1384 1.1875


GBP/USD 4-hour Forex Dance Floor
GBP/USD 4-hour: Consolidating within the Ichimoku's cloud.

Invest Diva positioning: Long positions above 1.5173 with targets at 1.5273 and 1.5375 in extension.

Technical reasons why: The pair is consolidating above the key resistance level at 1.5173 within the thick Ichimoku's cloud. The RSI is above the neutrality area.

Alternative Scenario: Below 1.5173 look for further downside towards 1.5052 and 1.4954.

Where I'm setting my stops and limits:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
1.5052 1.5173 1.5375
1.4954 1.5273


USD/JPY 4-hour Forex Dance Floor
USD/JPY 4-hour: Remains below the key support level.

Invest Diva positioning: Short positions below 117.98 with targets at 115.59 and 113.66 in extension.

Technical reasons why: The pair remains below the key support level at 117.98 and the Ichimoku's cloud. The RSI is also below the neutrality area.

Alternative Scenario: Above 117.98 look for further upside towards 119.30 and 120.63.

Where I'm setting my stops and limits:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
115.59 117.98 119.30
113.66 120.63


USD/CAD 4-hour Forex Dance Floor
USD/CAD 4-hour: Dropped.

Invest Diva positioning: Long positions above 1.1880 with targets at 1.1996 and 1.2090 in extension.

Technical reasons why: While the pair is on an overall uptrend, it dropped and reached our bearish target at 1.1880 but still remains above the Ichimoku's cloud with a bullish sentiment. The RSI is heading up towards neutrality area.

Alternative Scenario: Below 1.1880 look for further downside towards 1.1795 and 1.1668.

Where I'm setting my stops and limits:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
1.1795 1.1880 1.2090
1.1668 1.1996


AUD/USD 4-hour Forex Dance Floor
AUD/USD 4-hour: Teasing the key resistance level.

Invest Diva positioning: Long positions above 0.8250 with targets at 0.8322 and 0.8412 in extension.

Technical reasons why: The pair reached our bullish target and rebounded above the Ichimoku's cloud. A break above this level would change its trend to uptrend. The RSI is moving above the neutrality area.

Alternative Scenario: Below 0.8250 look for further downside towards 0.8145 and 0.8036.

Where I'm setting my stops and limits:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
0.8145 0.8250 0.8412
0.8036 0.8322


NZD/USD 4-hour Forex Dance Floor
NZD/USD 4-hour: Rebounding.

Invest Diva positioning: Short positions below 0.7834 with targets at 0.7747 and 0.7694 in extension.

Technical reasons why: The pair reached our bullish target at 0.7834 and is rebounding above the Ichimoku's cloud. The RSI is heading down to the neutrality area.

Alternative Scenario: Above 0.7834 look for further upside towards 0.7887 and 0.7973.

Where I'm setting my stops and limits:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
0.7747 0.7834 0.7973
0.7694 0.7887

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