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Aussie Dollar Reaching Top?


Mar.26.2014

The pick of the day is AUD/USD as the pair broke above the 50% Fibonacci level today, remaining above the Ichimoku cloud parting ways with the upward moving Tenkan and Kijun moving averages. The daily RSI is reaching the overbought zone, suggesting we may have reached a top for shorter period, so if you are a shorter term trader in a long position, you might want to consider taking profit at the 0.93 level. For longer term traders, a break above the 61% Fibonacci level on the daily dance floor could take the pair higher towards the top of November 2013 at 0.97130. Now a sudden change in the direction and a break below 0.90724 could alter our bullish perspective with 0.88922 and 0.86825.

AUDUSD Technical analysis fibonacci ichimoku RSI moving averages

In the overnight session, Asian markets took the bait and rallied on the positive US data. This was reinforced by beliefs that Beijing would step in with policy action to spur domestic consumption and boost growth. Meanwhile Japanese and South Korean leaders have been sitting down with President Obama to thaw out their icy relations and try and find a common ground to deal with North Korea, who launched two mid-range missiles into the Japan sea overnight.

Today's economic calendar is restricted to regional European data, though that does include Italian retail sales and consumer confidence, followed by US mortgage numbers, expected lower because of the weather, services PMI numbers and durable goods orders, which should all have an impact on Wall Street.  Jack Lew, Treasury Secretary, will be testifying at the House of Representatives, which could also spark some debate.

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Short-term Intraday Technical Forex Levels

EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Pivot: 1.3775

Our preference: Long positions above 1.3775 with targets @ 1.3845 & 1.388 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.3775 look for further downside with 1.3745 & 1.372 as targets.

Comment: The pair is facing a pull back ahead of a rebound.

Supports and resistances:
1.393
1.388
1.3845
1.3799 Last
1.3775
1.3745
1.372

GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails

Pivot: 1.6505

Our preference: Long positions above 1.6505 with targets @ 1.6555 & 1.658 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.6505 look for further downside with 1.646 & 1.643 as targets.

Comment: The pair stands above its support and remains on the upside.

Supports and resistances:
1.6605
1.658
1.6555
1.654 Last
1.6505
1.646
1.643

USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.

Our preference: Long positions above 102 with targets @ 102.45 & 102.65 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 102 look for further downside with 101.75 & 101.45 as targets.

Comment: The pair stands above its support and remains on the upside.

Supports and resistances:
102.85
102.65
102.45
102.325 Last
102
101.75
101.45

USD/CHF Intraday: bullish bias above 0.881.

Our preference: Long positions above 0.881 with targets @ 0.887 & 0.889 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.881 look for further downside with 0.8785 & 0.8765 as targets.

Comment: The pair remains on the upside and is approaching its resistance.

Supports and resistances:
0.891
0.889
0.887
0.8859 Last
0.881
0.8785
0.8765

NZD/USD Intraday: further upside

Our preference: Long positions above 0.8565 with targets @ 0.864 & 0.8675 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.8565 look for further downside with 0.853 & 0.85 as targets.

Comment: the immediate trend remains up and the momentum is strong.

Supports and resistances:
0.87
0.8675
0.864
0.8607 Last
0.8565
0.853
0.85

USD/CAD Intraday: under pressure.

Our preference: Short positions below 1.118 with targets @ 1.111 & 1.108 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.118 look for further upside with 1.121 & 1.1245 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 1.118 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.111 remains high.

Supports and resistances:
1.1245
1.121
1.118
1.1144 Last
1.111
1.108
1.104

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