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AUDUSD Volatility Ahead of RBA Minutes


Sep.18.2017

AUDUSD Volatility Ahead of RBA Minutes: AUDUSD volatility could intensify ahead of RBA minutes during the Asian session today. So far we have mixed technical signals for the pair.

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Technical Points: AUDUSD Volatility & Mixed Signals

Daily Time Frame: The AUD/USD pair continues on the path of forming a double top bearish chart pattern on the daily time frame ahead of the RBA September rate meeting minutes during Tuesday’s Asian session. The neckline of this pattern is set at 23% Fibonacci level at 0.7830. The pair formed a bearish engulfing chart pattern on Monday. However, it opened Tuesday's Asian session with the slight bullish momentum.

On the other hand, the pair continues above the Ichimoku cloud. The future cloud continues upside, with the Kijun and Tenkan lines flat.

AUDUSD Volatility Ahead - Double Top Chart Pattern AUDUSD Volatility Ahead - Double Top Chart Pattern

Monthly Time Frame: On a longer-term view, the AUDUSD pair has been progressing in an upward channel since it bottomed out in January 2016. The pair remains below the monthly Ichimoku cloud, with the future cloud moving down.

AUDUSD Volatility - Monthly Chart Technical Analysis AUDUSD Volatility - Monthly Chart Technical Analysis

Fundamental Points: AUDUSD Volatility Ahead of RBA Minutes

During Tuesday's Asian session the transcript of the latest monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia will hit the markets. Since the September RBA statement was pretty much a rehash of their previous one, the minutes of their meeting might contain more insight on whether or not individual policymakers are shifting their biases.

RBA has previously reiterated how a higher AUD has dampened their outlook for output, employment, and inflation.

With that, another round of jawboning could shift the AUDUSD volatility to the downside.

 

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Disclaimer (1): As 4th point of the IDDA, you must calculate your risk tolerance before deciding on which trading strategy is suitable for your portfolio. We normally do not recommend trading without three or more confirmation of a specific direction from technical, fundamental and market sentiment points of view.

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Combining all points of the IDDA, here are Invest Diva's calculations for important approximate levels to keep an eye on:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
0.7585 0.7741  0.80
0.7665 0.7838 0.81

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