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AUDUSD Resistance Standing Strong Before Jobs Data


Feb.12.2017

AUDUSD Resistance Could Hold Before Jobs Data

G'day Mates! Mr. Aussie is at it again and the AUDUSD resistance is being tested by market participants ahead of Australia's jobs data. Here is a quick IDDA approach to see if there are any solid opportunities to make some pips off AUD/USD.

 

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1- Fundamental Points

Australia's Economic Outlook

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was rather upbeat on economic outlook on their Friday statement. However, the IMF has decided to rain on their parade by urging the Reserve Bank to slash rates in a much more pessimistic analysis. They argue the Aussie economy is at risk of getting caught in a Japanese-style low inflation and low growth trap.

 

To be fair, the RBA did sight limited employment gains for 2017, saying “overall growth is not expected to be sufficient to generate much of a decline in the unemployment rate over the forecast period.”

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As for trade, Australia's terms of trade has gone up 16% since mid 2016. That is mainly due to their trading-buddy-in-chief, China's strong growth, which gave an unexpected boost to commodity prices.

You can read RBA's full statement here.

US Side

US president Donald Trump reportedly called his national security adviser at 3 a.m.  to ask if the US wants a strong or weak dollar. This kinda left the trading crowd wondering if Trump wasn't really serious when he was saying strong US dollar is bad for US economy and that it is "killing us."

With the Donald and his Twitter account now in power, US economic outlook is more like a daily surprise-party. So let's not rely on that to develop a trading strategy, shall we?

 

Coming up... 

While we have an incredibly light economic calendar Monday, market participants could be looking to Thursday’s jobs data out of Australia to push through the psychological level. It is President’s Day in the US today and some but not all organizations are on holiday.

 

 

2- Technical Points - AUDUSD Resistance Holding?

 

Daily Chart:  The AUD/USD pair is back at the important resistance 0.7690 and opened today’s Sydney session on a bearish sentiment, moving away from the resistance. The pair remains above the daily Ichimoku cloud, and from a longer term point of view, it has been ranging between 0.7690 and 0.7210 since April 2016.

 

 

 

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AUDUSD Resistance Could Hold - Daily Chart Technical Analysis AUDUSD Resistance Could Hold - Daily Chart Technical Analysis

 

 

3- Market Sentiment

The market sentiment has shifted into bearish early during Sydney session.  Stay tuned for more on AUDUSD moves and market sentiment developments in our investing group.

 

AUDUSD Trading Strategy

Calculate your risk tolerance and use the levels mentioned below to create a strategy suitable for you. For further help, please visit our investing group.

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Here are Invest Diva's calculations for important approximate levels for NZD/USD to keep an eye on:

 

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
0.7210 0.7450 0.7690
0.7330 0.7690 0.7830

 

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