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AUDJPY Fails Pivot | Australia’s Economic Data


Sep.06.2016

AUDJPY Fails Pivot

Australia's Quarterly GDP came in worse than expected and as a result AUDJPY fails pivot level and its previous break above Ichimoku. We have more coming out of Australia this week so let's get down to business with trading strategies and more.

AUDJPY Fails Pivot - Kiana Danial Invest Diva AUDJPY Fails Pivot - Kiana Danial Invest Diva

 

AUDJPY Fails Pivot | Technical Analysis

AUDJPY fails pivot with a sharp fall on Australia's GDP results. Not only that, but the pair dived back inside the Ichimoku cloud as well. The interesting point is that this all happened after a spinning top candle formation, which makes the combination a bearish engulfing. 

 

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While these are certainly not long term bearish signals, they easily may have open doors to our first support from here at 76.40.

AUDJPY Fails Pivot - Daily Chart Technical Analysis AUDJPY Fails Pivot - Daily Chart Technical Analysis

Resistance is set at 23% Fibonacci level at 81.00.

Coming up for Mr. Aussie

AUDJPY fails pivot, but could this path change during the remaining days of the week? Let's see what else we have coming up.

Australian trade balance (Sept. 8, 1:30 am GMT)

It's not over for Mr. Aussie and his forex dancing counterparts. On Thursday, we’ll get another glimpse into Australia’s trade activity with the July trade balance up for release. This is a pretty huge deal for the economy and is usually considered a leading growth indicator because exports account for nearly 20% of Australia’s GDP.

Australia has been reporting trade deficits since mid-2014. That means Land Down Under has been importing more goods than it has been exporting. But now there are indications that there could be higher demand for Aussie exports. And so we shall see on Thursday buddies.

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Chinese trade balance (Sept. 8, Asian session)

As Australia's trading buddy, we should always add China on our radar. They are also printing their trade figures on Thursday’s Asian session. This report will be for the month of August, serving as the earliest leading indicator for China’s appetite for Australia’s commodity exports. Keep in mind that roughly a third of Australia’s shipments are sent to China so the imports component might have a stronger influence on Mr.  Aussie this time.

 

Trading Strategy

The short term sentiment seems to be bearish targeting 76.40.

If we get better than expected results on Aussie data the remaining of the week, and the pair confirms a break above the Ichimoku cloud, our outlook could turn back to bullish. Resistance levels are set at 81 and 85 in extension. See below table for levels.

More on Economic Calendar

Wednesday

Asian Session:  Earlier during the Sydney session Australia’s Gross Domestic Product  makes headlines as well as Japan’s Leading Index.

London Session: We are expecting German Industrial Production to be out at 6 AM GMT and shake the EUR crosses. UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production are scheduled for 8:30 AM GMT.

New York Session: The hot economic data during the New York session will be out of Canada, as they release their Rate Decision at 2 PM GMT. The market is expecting Bank of Canada to keep rates unchanged at 0.50%, while a decision to lower rates can spur economic growth while inciting inflationary pressures, and therefore leading to a weaker Canadian dollar, also known as the Loonie.

Next Day's Asian Session: Moving forward during the next day’s Asian session, Japan will release their GDP and Current Account at 11:50 PM GMT to end the trading day.

 

Here are Invest Diva's calculations for important AUD/JPY approximate levels to keep an eye on:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
72.43 76.40 81.00
76.40 78.55 85.00

 

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Kiana 喜愛成
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