FXで取引をするのに最適な通貨ペア – はじめに –
ＦＸ市場には様々な通貨があり、どのタイミングでどの通貨ペアを取引するのが良いか迷っている人も多いでしょう。その選択を間違ってしまうと、お金を失ってしまう結果になってしまうかもしれません。しかし、ＦＸの良い点は、いくつもある株とは違って、主な通貨は７つしかないということです。
けれども、多くのトレーダーは通貨ペアを選ぶのに苦労しています。もしくは、ｆｘ市場で、取引するスキルを得た時に、最も良い通貨を選ぶのを迷っているでしょう。
オーストラリアにいる時に、Invest Divaのメンバーであるジャネットが、私に質問をくれました。ジャネットは、オーストラリア、アメリカ、イギリスの通貨事情を勉強してきました。しかし、彼女は、オーストラリアドルに投資するのに良いタイミングであるのか迷っていました。そこでくれた質問がこれです。
今ｆｘ市場で取引するのに良い通貨ペアは何ですか？オーストラリアの経済が複雑な状況なので、オーストラリアドルを含む取引は避けた方がよいのでしょうか
Best currency pairs to trade in forex – Forex Dance Floor
ｆｘで取引すべき通貨ペア
ビデオコースでも述べているように、主要な通貨は７つあり、必ず通過ペアで取引をしないといけません。市場が上がる時はもちろん下がる時でも利益を出すことができます。
どの通貨を選ぶかは、経済状況がどうかだけでは決められません。どのポジションで持つかも重要です。トレードを多くやっている人は、７つの通貨すべてでポジションを持っている人もいるでしょう。しかし、長期トレーダーは、良い機会が来るまで最適な通貨を選んで待っているでしょう。
今回は、ジャネットのような保守的なトレーダーのために書きます。彼女は、母親と妻の役割を担っているように、自分の仕事とトレードのバランスを保っています。以前のビデオでは、トレードするのに最適な日時を説明しました。コンピューターを開いて、お金を手に入れる機会を見つけましょう。それでは、最適な通貨ペアを見つけるステップを説明していきますね！
１. 少なくとも７つの通貨ペアのチャートを開く
これは朝のコーヒータイムでできるでしょう。ニュースなどのメディアの騒音を聞く前に、偏見を持たずに市場がどうなっているかを見るのが良いでしょう。どの通貨ペアが下降気味なのか。それとも上昇しているのか。他の主要通貨に対して、同じように下がっている通貨はあるか。最初は、偏見を持たずにfx市場を見ていくのが良いでしょう。これは次のステップで役に立ちます。
2. 最近のニュースを見る
次は、いくつかの通貨を選んで、最新のグローバルなニュースを見ましょう。金利の上昇や、中国の株急落、スイスフランの強い介入など、何か普通ではない市場の状況があるかもしれません。ニュースによって最新の市場のセンチメントや、リスクオンもしくはリスクオンの状況を読み取りやすくなるでしょう。私たちは、基本的には、ボラティリティの高い市場で取引のチャンスを見つけることができても、リスクが高い取引は避けましょう。頑張って働いたお金で投資をしているので、より安全な取引の方が良いでしょう！
3- Check out Invest Diva’s blog for latest forex trading strategies
Now that you have the breaking news on hand, you can turn to our blog for longer term, solid trading strategies on select currency pairs. If you find the currency pairs you had your eyes on, great! Read on and find out if these are the best currency pairs to trade in forex right now.
You should also determine if these pairs are suitable for your portfolio at this time. It is important to note that we don’t publish forex trading strategies for every currency pair, everyday. The reasons include our goal to cut down on market noise, as well as avoiding to mislead forex traders to trade more than they should. We have noticed that traders with larger risk appetite tend to jump on any trading signal we publish, whether it is suitable for their portfolio or not. So, in order to promote responsible trading, we have limited our trading signals to only 3 per week. Any thing more than that needs a thorough consultation with your truly, to analyze your current account, open positions, available margin, investing portfolio, and more.
4- Pair up strong currencies against weak currencies
Best currency pairs to trade are the ones trending. Since currencies are always traded against each other, the pair with the strongest trend is led by a strong base currency, and supported by a weaker quote currency. For example, the EUR/USD pair will move in a strong uptrend if the Euro is strengthening and the US dollar is weakening. The AUD/JPY pair will move in a strong downtrend if the Aussie dollar is weakening and the Japanese Yen is strengthening. Sometimes it also works if you pick a currency with a higher volatility against a currency that has been showing consolidation. This way you can base your analysis on the trending currency.
5- Conduct Technical Analysis
Return to your charts and do a quick technical analysis on your selected currency pairs to find trends or ranges. By doing this you can narrow your choices down to the best currency pairs which are inline with the strongest trends. Polish your technical analysis on these pairs to identify the support, resistance and pivot levels. Go over your portfolio and see if your open positions include the currencies you chose. You’d want to diversify your portfolio as much as possible. If you are already in a EUR/USD trade, it is best to choose a currency pair that doesn’t include the euro.
6- Narrow down your currency pairs of choice
Depending on your portfolio, trading personality, and the recent global risk events, you can now work your way down to a couple of currency pairs. If you are able to monitor the markets frequently, you can pick the currencies whose economy has an upcoming event risk. If you are going on a vacation and won’t be able to follow the markets for a while, pick a currency whose economy is showing a more stable future. Do the same for the cross currency. Keep in mind that these are all probabilities and trading is never 100% certain. What we are doing here is making the odds work in our favor.
7- Calculate the pip value and your risk appetite
Some currency pair have a higher pip value than other. A higher pip value can increase your profit in winning trades, but can also increase your losses in a losing trade. Calculate your risk tolerance to set your stop and limit order levels properly. This will enable you to get into the market with confidence, knowing that even if the pair changes direction from your open position, you still won’t lose more than you can afford. 
8- Go against the trading crowd, but follow your gut feeling
Studies show that the market participants are often wrong with their positions! While this is more of a probability math than a fact, we can sometimes use these indicators as a final step in choosing the best currency pairs to trade. Many brokers and social media (such as Scutify) reveal the most recent market sentiment in many trading instruments including forex. The idea is to trade against the majority of the crowd. So if the majority of forex traders are in a long position on GBP/USD, it may be a good time to short this pair and vice versa. This is mostly helpful with shorter term positions. Also keep in mind that contrarian sentiment analysis is a final touch up on your thorough fundamental and technical analysis, and should never be used by itself. Lastly, trust your gut feeling. If after all this you don’t feel safe getting into the market, then don’t force yourself. Remember, when you are having fun trading with a positive attitude, the rewards are greater than just money in your pocket.
That was my A to your Q Jeanette. Finding the best currency pairs to trade at any given time requires research and analysis. Never invest in ANY THING just because your best friend or some random dude on TV said so. Not only the markets are changing constantly, the trading strategy that works for others may not be suitable for you and your financial goals. Don’t forget that we are always here to help! Submit your questions here, Tweet them here or Facebook them here. And as always, invest responsibly 🙂
The beautiful view in the video is from the Jack Rabbit Vineyard & Restaurant in Melbourne Australia.
