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USDCAD Ichimoku Cloud Confirmation – Janet Yellen Remarks


Dec.19.2016

USDCAD Ichimoku Cloud Confirmation

On Tuesday's Sydney session after Janet Yellen's remarks, we got the USDCAD Ichimoku cloud confirmation we've been waiting for. What do the other points of the  IDDA approach have to say about the pair? Let's find out and develop a juicy trading strategy.

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Technical Analysis | USDCAD Ichimoku Cloud Confirmation

Daily Chart: We got our USDCAD Ichimoku cloud confirmation first thing during Tuesday's Asian session as the pair opened above the daily cloud, and the 23% Fibonacci retracement level.

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The pair has been ranging in an upward channel since it bottomed out in May. The pivot remains at 38% Fibonacci at 1.3250. Support is set at 1.3075. 

While the Chiko span crossed above the cloud a while ago, the Tenkan line crossed below the Kijun beginning of December on the daily chart.

USDCAD Ichimoku Cloud Confirmation USDCAD Ichimoku Cloud Confirmation - Daily Chart Technical Analysis

Monthly Time-Frame: On the monthly chart, the pair remains above the Ichimoku cloud. It has formed a hanging man candlestick pattern for the month of December, after November's spinning top right below the pivot of 1.35.

The pair is on its way to complete an ultra-long-term double top pattern, with the neckline set at 1.2725.

USDCAD Ichimoku Cloud Confirmation - Monthly Chart Technical Analysis USDCAD Ichimoku Cloud Confirmation - Monthly Chart Technical Analysis

 

Fundamentals | USDCAD Ichimoku Cloud Confirmation

US Side: Fed Head Janet Yellen is all optimistic about the US economy. She addressed the University of Baltimore Commencement Tuesday, and while she did not directly mention monetary policy in her speech, she assured those that they would be entering the strongest job market in nearly a decade.

With the unemployment rate at 4.6 percent, its lowest level since 2007, Fed policy makers have indicated a growing confidence in the US economy. Yellen also stated that she sees indications that wage growth is picking up, and that weekly earnings for younger workers have made promising gains.

In other news, US president elect Donald Trump won the Electoral College votes to formally become president of the United States. With that, we could see Ms. USA getting back-on-track with her "Trump rally".

Meanwhile the economic calendar thins out before Christmas and we are expecting lower liquidity in the coming days.

US Existing Home Sales (NOV) will be out on Wednesday at 3 PM, followed by their Crude Oil Inventories (DEC 16) which could impact the USD/CAD pair.

 

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Canada's Side: Canada will release their Wholesale Sales (MoM) (OCT)on Tuesday  during the New York session at 1:30 PM

Market Sentiment | USDCAD Ichimoku Cloud Confirmation

49% of traders are currently bullish on the USD/CAD pair on one of the largest brokers in the US.  Long positions are 6.4% lower than yesterday and 29.2% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 5.4% higher than yesterday and 4.1% below its monthly average. The trading crowd has flipped from net-long to net-short from yesterday and last week. We use this as a contrarian indicator to price action, so the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias, on top of the USDCAD Ichimoku cloud confirmation.  Lookout for more sentimental updates for USD/CAD on our Premium Investing Group.

 

Trading Strategy | USDCAD Ichimoku Cloud Confirmation

Putting the technical, fundamental and sentimental points of the IDDA approach together, we could consider going for a medium to long-term trade. Please visit out Premium Investing Group for detailed trading strategies and risk management ideas. 

Here are Invest Diva's calculations for important approximate levels for USD/CAD to keep an eye on:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
1.3075 1.3250 1.3525
1.2962 1.3163 1.3640

 

 xoxo

Kiana 喜愛成
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