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GBPUSD Tries Ichimoku Cloud’s Upper Band Once Again


Dec.12.2016

GBPUSD Tries Ichimoku

As we enter a week filled with hot market moving events out of the UK and the US, GBPUSD tries Ichimoku cloud's upper band yet again. So naturally, we are taking an IDDA appraoch to strategy development for for our lovely Invest Divas—and Divos.

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Personal note:  I'm so excited because my Monday night classes at Baruch College (where I teach Wealth Management) have ended for this Semester! So Our Monday night updates are back!

(Not that I dislike being called "Professor", while teaching an amazing group of students, but Monday night updates are awesome too. Let's hope they'll assign me a Thursday class for next Semester :) )

Ok. Let's get back to GBP/USD.

Technical Analysis | GBPUSD Tries Ichimoku Cloud's Upper Band

Daily Chart: After breaking above a falling wedge, the GBP/USD pair made its way up towards the flat, yet thick  Ichimoku cloud in November. It then started testing and teasing the upper band of the Senkou span beginning of December. Last week we said this will only confirm if GBP/USD also breaks above the 23% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2760. So far, it hasn't succeeded.

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For traders with lower risk tolerance, we also need a confirmation of the Chiko span.  Medium-term support is set at 1.2125, while resistance is set at 1.3170.

GBPUSD Tries Ichimoku Cloud's Upper Band - Daily Chart Technical Analysis GBPUSD Tries Ichimoku Cloud's Upper Band - Daily Chart Technical Analysis

 

Monthly Chart:  On a longer time-frame, GBPUSD remains at all-time-low levels below the monthly Ichimoku cloud. Long-term support is set at 1.15 in case $?!t hits the fan in the UK.

 

Monthly Chart Technical Analysis - GBPUSD Tries Ichimoku on Daily Monthly Chart Technical Analysis - GBPUSD Tries Ichimoku on Daily

Fundamentals | GBPUSD Tries Ichimoku

We have a CRAZY busy economic calendar for both Mr. British Pound and Ms. USA!!

US Side: 

  • Wednesday December 14th, 7 PM GMT: The long awaited FOMC rate decision (Duh?). To hike or not to hike? That shall remain the question on every Invest Diva's mind. So far we've got generally mixed releases on GDP and Trade.  On the other hand, Janet Yellen and her buddies at the Fed are mainly focused on CPI and employment. CPI continues to improve, while there are some worrying things about the labor market. The Fed members have had positive remarks on the economy however, and they have said that there is a chance they would just pull the plud and just do it.

 

  • Wednesday December 14th, 1:30 PM GMT: Advance Retail Sales (NOV). This  figure is generally a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. The figure is expected to come out lower than last month’s 0.8%, at 0.3%.

 

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UK Side: 

  • Tuesday December 13th, 9:30 AM GMT: During Tuesday’s London session we’ve got the Headline and Core CPI. Analysts are expecting a pickup in headline inflation to 1.1% and for core inflation to recover to 1.3%. A stronger than expected read could hint that the pound’s slide is finally translating to stronger domestic inflation, which might give the BOE more reason to keep interest rates unchanged.

 

  • Wednesday December 14th, 9:30 AM GMT: On Wednesday we have the UK jobs report. For the month of November, the claimant count could show a 6.2K increase while the unemployment rate could hold steady at 4.8%. No change is expected in the average earnings index of 2.3% for the three-month period ending in October.

 

Market Sentiment | GBPUSD Tries Ichimoku

 56% of traders are bullish on GBP/USD in one of the largest brokers in the US.  However, long positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday and 0.3% above levels seen last week. While we use this type of market analysis as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue lower, the trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday but further long since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a mixed trading bias. Check out updates on GBP/USD'a market sentiment on our Facebook page.

 

Trading Strategy | GBPUSD Tries Ichimoku

Putting the technical, fundamental and sentimental points of the IDDA approach together, we could consider going for a short-term limit order-based trade for the GBP/USD pair. Please visit out Premium Facebook Group for detailed trading strategies and risk management ideas. 

In today updates on our Premium Facebook group, you will also find trading strategies for USD/JPY, NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY, and updates on USD/CAD. For stocks, you'll find updates on AMD, NVDA and HDP. Join us today.

 

Here are Invest Diva's calculations for important approximate levels to keep an eye on:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
1.15 1.2760 1.3480
1.2150 1.3170 1.38

 

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 xoxo

Kiana 喜愛成
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